Gold & Silver Validating Potential for 1 – 2 Month Lows.
07/23/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver are hovering near major support levels after declining for 6 weeks from their June 3 highs, peaks that were set during the latest phases of corresponding ~6-week & ~12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. Both have declined to the levels of their early-2020 highs.
While Gold spiked lower this past week, Silver did not – maintaining the fulfillment of a related ~6-week low-low-low-low-high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression that bottomed on July 11 – 18. That also allowed Silver to match the duration of its two longest declines of the past few years.
All three have been ~18 (17 – 19) weeks in duration – unfolding in Aug – Nov ’20, May – Sept ’21 and now Mar – July ’22. In and of itself, neither of these factors signals a bottom… but both show that Gold & Silver have extended their declines for a ‘normal’ amount of time – when compared to previous sell-offs and related Cycle Progressions…
Gold has now matched the magnitude of its Aug ’20 – Mar ’21 decline while fulfilling an intermediate HHL objective in the Dec ’22 contract (~2090 H – ~1900 H – ~1710/GCZ Low) while testing the levels of its Mar & Aug ’21 lows (and Feb/Mar ’20 high).
That also highlights an important and intriguing discussion related to Gold’s current standing. From a multi-year perspective, Gold was forecast to undergo a major advance from late-2015 into 3Q 2020 (possibly stretching into May ’21). That was linked to multiple cycles not the least of which was the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars.
It fulfilled that outlook and peaked in Aug ’20. Since that multi-year peak, Gold has traded in a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction – with successive highs at the same level (~2080/GC) and successive lows at the same level (~1680/GC). One of the intriguing aspects of that is it is exactly what Gold did following its initial high in 3Q 2016…
Following its 3Q ’16 high, Gold entered a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction during which its greatest loss was ~18.5% (from peak to bottom).
Following its 3Q ’20 high, Gold entered a ~2-year ‘flat’ correction during which its greatest loss was ~18.5% (from peak to bottom)…
The XAU & HUI remain weak, selling off into mid-July and to their lowest levels since 2Q ’20. In the case of the HUI, it has nearly matched the duration of its 3Q’16 – 3Q ’18 decline, dropping from 3Q ’20 into 3Q ’22.
All of this reinforces the significance of their April ’22 peaks – the latest phases of both ~10-month & ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high Cycle Progressions that projected multi-month peaks.
The April ’22 high was the 7th in that 21 – 23-week sequence and was 23 weeks from its Nov ’21 high, which was 23 weeks from May ’21 peak.”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing multi-month cycles that peaked in late-Feb/early-Mar ‘22 while Gold was fulfilling the primary upside target for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak (a top that is likely to hold for at least 6 – 12 months). The XAU/HUI Indexes set divergent peaks in April ’22 (after Gold & Silver had peaked) – fulfilling very consistent ~23-week & ~10-month cycles in both. The ~10-month cycle projects a future peak in Feb ’23 and provides important clues as to when an intervening multi-month bottom is most likely.
Gold has fulfilled a primary (3 – 6 month) objective by dropping back to ~1680/GC (see 5/11/22 issue of The Bridge as well as related publications) as part of multi-year wave structure and a larger decline in Gold now that a wave ‘V’ peak is likely intact. Gold just attacked that support and is holding above it so a 1 – 2 month bottom could take hold.
What Would Future Close Below 1680/GC Mean for Gold? …And When is that More Likely?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Reinforce 2022 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.