Gold, Silver & Many Markets Enter Dangerous 2 – 4 Week Period; War Cycles Concur.
03-20-24 – Gold/Silver/XAU Surging into New Natural Year
The Natural Year
Once again, it’s the time of year to review a very critical and decisive period in our world. This period is being reinforced as several markets/complexes are on the verge of completing intermediate moves in the days surrounding March 19/20, 2024 (one day early in 2024, due to leap year).
The reason for this has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the Vernal Equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until Vernal Equinox 2025).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘24). However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons.
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox, the first month of that year would end on April 19th. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has already had an oversized impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in lockstep with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20/21 to April 19/ 20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year.
In 2024, many markets are set up for significant ‘change’ in the weeks surrounding March 19/20th… Gold & Silver have surged into this time frame and are expected to accelerate… Grain markets, that are trying to build a base, could begin new advances to begin the new Natural Year. Oil markets could soon peak.
In short, it is a pivotal time when several markets could see extremes on a multi-week or even multi-month basis…
Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.
Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ as part of its latest primary advance.
The current week’s LHR is at 2302/GCJ, reinforcing that potential. Monday’s low corroborated that, producing an Intermediate LLH objective at 2302/GCJ (1996 – 2149 – 2302/GCJ).
That is also where a pair of long-term wave objectives converge and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.
Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. The next range trading target is at ~2300.0/GCJ…
Silver continues to confirm the late-January & mid-February lows as well as subsequent range-trading signals with targets at ~26.75 & ~28.25/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC on March 8th – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.
It gave a corroborating weekly close above 24.56/SIK, turning its intra-year trend up. That projects a surge to at least ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (multi-week) upside targets converge. A spike above 28.00/SIK – the weekly LHR – is not out of the question…
The minimum wave target for this rally – where the advance from mid-February would equal the magnitude of the advance from October – December ’23 – is at 27.37/SIK. That is also where Silver peaked in May 2023 – magnifying its significance.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk [reserved for subscribers]. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI are surging higher, confirming the outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals they generated on March 1st after retesting their October ’23 lows in late-February.
The XAU remains capable of surging above 137.00/XAU on an intermediate basis. On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU reinforced that – showing the potential for a surge that could spike as high as 134 – 138.00… and powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.
That is where extreme upside targets exist in the current week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024. The latest two weekly LHRs are at 134.18 & 134.52/XAU.
1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February in line with the strategy published at that time. Risk/exit on a daily close below 114.50/XAU. Exit 1/2 of these positions if/when xxx.xx/XAU is hit.” FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Gold & Silver are fulfilling their mid-February buy signals – projecting acceleration higher in March/April 2024. The current advance is projected to take Gold above 2300/GCJ with Silver projected to attack ~27.30 and then 28.00+/SIK… as the XAU surges to/above 137.00 into April 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for 2024! Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and has fulfilled projections to break out to the upside in March 2024!
Related cycles reinforce the likelihood for intensification of Middle East War Cycles in 2024 – with a new escalation of Iran vs Israel conflict likely to spur gains in Gold & Silver. Watch March 20 into April 19/20 as the most likely time for escalation of tensions in the Middle East. (The March 2024 INSIIDE Track recently elaborated.)
A 180-degree move from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel arrives in early-April ’23… a cyclically likely time for a new attack of some form… and acceleration higher in precious metals.
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
The Bridge: Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion Dilemma & Demise
40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.