Gold, Silver & XAU Poised for 1 – 2 Month Peaks; XAU Attacks Upside Targets.
01/04/20 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver extended their advances with weekly trend and LHR indicators projecting a peak for Jan. 3 – 17…
Gold & Silver are mildly diverging with Gold continuing to higher levels – on ‘safe haven’ buying – as Silver levels off. The action of the past week has provided a lot of critical clarification for Gold and some competing cycles. Two of them were previously cited on Dec. 7, looking ahead to early-Jan. ’20 as a pivotal (but uncertain) time…
Gold reversed higher during the following week (Dec. 9 – 13) and spiked to its highest levels in over a month, ultimately closing substantially higher on the week – corroborating perceived strength.
At the same time, another indicator was coming into focus and also pinpointing late-Dec./early-Jan. as a pivotal time for Gold (right after Silver fulfilled multi-week/multi-month cycles and set a low that should hold for 1 – 2 months)…
Several factors, including the daily trend pattern, show that Gold should see another rally… Beginning on Dec. 23 – 27, the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will surge in Gold (for 5 – 6 weeks). On Dec. 30, the weekly 21 High MARC will jump to 1528.1/GCG…”
The weekly 21 MARC would play a key role, with the most decisive period being the week of Dec. 30 – Jan. 3. At that time, Gold would need to exceed 1528.1/GCG…
As explained many times before, a surging 21 MARC usually has a sequence of impacts. During the initial phase, it is usually a bullish factor – supporting current price action from beneath. In the middle phase, it can become neutral – surging to meet current price levels and flattening the related (and inversely-correlated) weekly 21 MAC.
Finally, the latter phases of that 21 MARC surge become a negative as it overtakes (exceeds) current price levels and forces the corresponding weekly 21 MAC to turn down. This past week was the most decisive as Gold would need to surge above 1528.1/GCG to prevent the weekly 21 High MARC from becoming a negative influence.
Gold was able to accomplish that at the same time it was giving (very) preliminary validation to the potential for an accelerated advance in Jan. or Feb. 2020…
This week, the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will surge in Gold (for 5 – 6 weeks). On Dec. 30, the weekly 21 High MARC will jump to 1528.1/ GCG… the coming week is ‘do or die’ for Gold.”
That analysis reinforced the decisive nature of 1528.1/GCG resistance. Corroborating this outlook was the action in Silver, which triggered two important weekly signals on Dec. 27 – both of which projected a 1 – 2 month peak in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks. The first involved its weekly trend pattern…
On Dec. 27, Silver neutralized its weekly downtrend for the first time. Simultaneously, that confirmed the Dec. 9 – 13 cycle low AND started the clock ticking for a contrasting 1 – 2 month peak. In most cases, a market will twice neutralize the weekly downtrend and then peak and/or reverse lower during the third week.
Silver just completed the second phase of that pattern, neutralizing the weekly downtrend a second time (on Jan. 3). That pinpoints the coming week – Jan. 6 – 10 – as the ideal one for a peak and reversal lower (the pivotal third week).
Also on Dec. 27, Silver attacked and held its weekly LHR – another indicator that usually ushers in a 1 – 2 month peak within the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks. So, a top on Jan. 6 – 10 would fulfill that.
Silver also has one other (lagging) factor that dovetails with the setup in Gold. The weekly 21 MARC in Silver is just beginning to surge and will likely not exceed current price action until Jan. 13 – 17 or later. So, that fits with the potential scenario for a top in the coming week and a sell-off materializing after that.
1 – 5 day Outlook:
Gold & Silver remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends as they enter a decisive time on Jan. 6/7. Gold closed sequentially higher on Dec. 30 & 31, so it did not signal a pullback into Jan. 6/7, but rather a continued advance into that time – the latest phase of a ~4-week (27 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high?) Cycle Progression in Silver.
Both are also in the midst of a weekly cycle convergence so an intermediate peak could take hold at any time…
1 – 4 week traders could have exited the second half of long positions in Feb. Comex Gold futures w/avg. gains of about $4,500/contract – resulting in an overall avg. gain of about $4,225/contract for the entire long position.
The XAU fulfilled its weekly trend buy signal (generated in mid-Oct.) by surging to new multi-year highs and the highest level since Aug. ’16. It attacked its weekly & monthly LHRs while fulfilling upside targets at 105.71 – 107.14/XAU.
It set its highest close at the upper end of that target range and spiked to within 2.0 points of 110.0 – a 1 – 2 year upside objective dating back to 2018. As a result, a multi-week peak was expected to take hold this past week.
The XAU has initially fulfilled that but needs a daily close below 105.03 to confirm. If triggered, that would portend a likely pullback into mid-Jan. – 90 degrees/3 months from the mid-Oct. ’19 low. ~98.00/XAU is now 2 – 4 week support, but not yet a downside target. The action of the next 2 – 3 days should clarify how deep a correction could dive.”
Gold & Silver enter Jan. 6 – 10 when intermediate peak is most likely. XAU attacking convergence of 3 – 6 month, 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year upside objectives at 107.14 – 110.0. 1 – 2 month peak expected, followed by culminating advance into March 2020.
How High Could Gold Reach by/in March ‘20?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.