Gold, Silver, XAU & Dollar Corroborate Decisive Cycles on August 14 – 25, ‘23.
07-01-23 – “Looking out, the Dollar is building further cycle synergy in Aug ’23, with a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression converging on Aug 14 – 25, ’23. If the recent low holds, the Dollar Index would complete successive rallies of 7 weeks each (c = a rebounds) – and also complete a .618 rebound in time (28 wks down/17 wks up) – if it rallied into Aug 7 – 14, ’23.
The Euro is, inversely, signaling that a secondary top is more likely at this time. It again rebounded to its declining weekly 21 High MAC while neutralizing its weekly downtrend for the third time. The Euro has converging cycles in Aug ’23 that are likely to time a low when a 45 – 46-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 7 – 18, ‘23. That would also complete a 50% retracement in time (30 wks up, 15 wks dn)…
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is most likely in late-Aug ’23. A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (both lows of late-2022 double bottom used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
Gold & Silver sold off long enough for Gold to turn its weekly trend down, identifying the likely time (this past week) for an initial low and rebound. They set a divergent low with Gold dropping lower as Silver pulled back to a higher low and then reversed back up.
In the process, Gold fulfilled a 28 – 29 day low (Mar 8) – high (Apr 5) – high (May 4) – high (June 1) – (low; June 29/30, ‘23) Cycle Progression (that could ultimately reinforce future cycle lows in late-August…
The XAU & HUI remain negative & are ultimately expected to drop back to (or below) their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI.
In mid-April (similar to 2022), they set highs while matching the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) and peaked ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 highs. The XAU also matched the price magnitude of its prior advance, reinforcing the likelihood for a multi-month peak and the onset of a correction that could last into Aug/Sept ‘23.
A low is most likely in late-Aug ’23 – the fulfillment of an uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That is also the latest phase of a ~12-month high (Aug ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Sept ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – (low; Aug/Sept ’23) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.