Gold, Silver, XAU & HUI Complete Sell-offs; Final Spike High Likely in Early-May.

04-29-23 – “Gold & Silver are reinforcing signs of an intermediate peak, particularly in Gold, after reaching 1 – 2 month upside price targets from the buy signals triggered in early-March ’23.

With its April 13 high, Gold fulfilled a 70 – 71-day/~10-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that is very similar to the cycle that helped pinpoint the 4Q ’22 low.  It also fulfilled a 24-day low-high-(high) and 22-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.

The combination of Silver’s weekly trend reversal and both metals attacking weekly LHR levels also set the stage for a downturn on April 17 – 21 – a 360-degree (1-year) cycle from when Gold & Silver triggered substantial sell-offs in 2022.

Silver maintains a slight but diminishing chance of retesting or spiking above its high in early-May ‘23 and fulfilling a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression…

Regardless of what occurs in the coming days, Gold and Silver are reinforcing signs that a 1 – 2 year uptrend is well underway.  Both bottomed in line with multi-year cycle lows in late-2022 and have rallied, on balance, ever since then.

After an intervening, early-year correction, Gold and Silver again surged after bottoming in line with Gold’s intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ) and Silver’s multi-month cycles.

The early-March ‘23 low fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23) in Silver.

If that cycle remains in force, Silver could [reserved for subscribers]…

 

Gold & Silver sold off after peaking on April 13/14 as Gold was fulfilling a 24-day low (Feb 24) – high (Mar 20) – (high; April 13) Cycle Progression.  That did spur selling into late-April but nothing that would be deemed that bearish.

Both turned daily trends down but have found support near their daily 21 Low MACs.  Until daily closes below 1980/GCM & 24.73/SIN, the 2 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month trends remain positive.  That leaves a small window of opportunity for a quick spike up in the early days of May ‘23 – in line with 2, 3 & 4-month high-high cycles.

If that is going to happen, it is possible it involves a quick knee-jerk reaction to whatever Fed news emerges this week (both the interest rate move AND the statement that follows it)… without even turning the daily trends back up.  Since the action of May 1 – 3 will also set the month-opening range, the date for Fed action is doubly-significant.

The XAU & HUI continue to confirm that a multi-week and likely multi-month top was set in mid-April – right as they matched the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) while peaking ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 multi-month highs.

The XAU also matched the price magnitude of that advance, reinforcing the likelihood for at least a 1 – 2 month peak.  That was expected to spur a sell-off into late-April, which unfolded and should spur another round of selling in May ‘23.

Both indexes closed below their rising daily 21 Low MACs and could see the direction of those averages turn down in the coming week.  These indexes are likely to replicate the 4 – 6 week duration of declines seen in early-2023 with the weekly trends expected to help time an ultimate low.

Platinum & Palladium pulled back into month-end but are positioned to see another rally with Platinum still on track for more upside into May 8 – 19 ‘23, the latest phase of the 18 – 19 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that timed the early-Jan ’23 peak in Platinum.

Copper remains below multi-month cycle highs set in Jan ’23 and spiked to new multi-month lows while closing the week below its rising weekly 21 Low MAC… adding another negative signal.  The most convincing, and most bearish, would be a weekly close below 3.7245/HGN – its intra-year low.”

Gold & Silver have already (initially) reached multi-month upside targets after advancing since fulfilling the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC).  At that time, they entered the ideal setup for the onset of a bullish 1 – 2 year period in precious metals.  Platinum is signaling something similar.  2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises (in and out of the markets) for precious metals, with multiple advances projected.

The second advance was expected to begin in early-March ‘23 and to last into early-May ’23 (May 3 – 5) when the next intermediate high is cyclically most likely.  Based on the late-April sell-offs (which were not that bearish but warn of a future decline), a final spike high is still likely in early-May before metals would enter a prolonged corrective phase and experience larger sell-offs.

The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a strong rally to new intra-year highs (into early-May ’23), with upside price targets now being fulfilled.  A retest of those targets could be seen during a final spike high in early-May ’23.

How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023? 

 

Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding… or Just a Comparable Advance??

 

Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?

 

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.