Gold, Silver, XAU & HUI Confirming Major Bottom!
10/06/21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Metals & Miners Bottoming”
Gold, Silver & mining shares (XAU & HUI index stocks) are showing early signs of a multi-week low and reversal higher. The HUI perfectly fulfilled multi-year, monthly, weekly & daily cycles bottoming in late-Sept. by setting their lowest close and intraday low on Sept 29. Since that time, Gold has already evolved through a textbook reversal pattern – rallying and quickly turning its daily trend up and then pulling back for two days.
While pulling back, it has held above its declining daily 21 Low MAC and is poised to enter a new rally and, ideally, close above its daily 21 High MAC and then turn that average higher at the same time or in the ensuing days. It needs a daily close above 1780.0/GCZ to confirm an intermediate bottom and project a likely surge back to ~1840/GCZ.
A daily close above 1771.5/GCZ is what it would take to turn the intra-month trend up and project additional upside into mid-month or even late-month (when weekly cycles converge). A daily close above 22.805/SIZ would accomplish the same thing in Silver.
The XAU and HUI are providing similar setups and are discussed later in this Alert. All of this is initially validating the outlook for a late-Sept low followed by an overall rebound into late-Oct/early-Nov ‘21…
Gold & Silver are on the verge of confirming a multi-week reversal higher. They fulfilled intermediate analysis for overall declines into late-Sept/early-Oct with Gold testing weekly support and bottoming without giving a daily close below 1720.0/GCZ (pivot point).
They reversed higher on Sept 30 – 180 degrees (6 months) from the Mar 30/31 lows in metals and mining shares – an ideal time for a low. They have also initially fulfilled monthly and weekly cycles in Silver that projected a multi-month low in late-Sept/early-Oct ‘21.
That fulfilled a ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression as Silver nearly completed a 50% retracement of its Mar – Aug ’20 advance (~12.00 to ~30.00/SI)…
The XAU & HUI just completed the third week after testing and holding their respective weekly HLS levels. That was when an intermediate low was most likely. That potential was reinforced by a myriad of other cycles and timing indicators…
They also just fulfilled a consistent 29 – 31 week low (Nov ’18) – low (May ’19) – high (Dec ‘19/ Jan ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept 17 – Oct 1, ’21) Cycle Sequence.
On a broader scale, the HUI has followed a consistent ~3-Year Cycle since Sept. 2012. That created a ~3-year high (Sept ’12) – low (Sept ’15) – low (Sept ’18) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression and the likelihood for another low in Sept. 2021.
That ~3-Year Cycle subdivided into an 18-month low-low cycle – creating lows in Sept ’15, Mar ’17, Sept ’18 & Mar ’20 while projecting a subsequent low for late-Sept ’21.
On an intermediate basis, the XAU projected a drop into the end of Sept in sync with a ~9-week low-low-low-low-high-high-(low) Cycle Sequence…
When viewed all together, these cycles argue strongly for a multi-month low in late-Sept and a subsequent rally could last into Nov. ’21 when the XAU has a 5-month low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver as well as mining shares (XAU & HUI Indexes) fulfilled projections for sharp declines into late-Sept when weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottomed and projected 3 – 6 month (or longer) lows. Silver likely set the low of a ‘c’ wave decline… ushering in the time for a new rally into 1Q ’22. The XAU attacked 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month price support near 115.00/XAU – where a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom was most likely.
All these factors powerfully reinforce analysis for a major low at this time!
What is significance of future Nov ’21 cycle high (that could last 1 – 2 months)?
What does this mean for the next multi-month cycle high in 1Q ’22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.