Gold, Silver, & XAU Project New Decline (& Dollar Rally) into Aug 14 – 25, ’23!
07-19-23 – “Gold & Silver: When is Upside Breakout Most Likely? – In Sept/Oct ’22, INSIIDE Track and the Weekly Re-Lay detailed why and how Gold & Silver were likely bottoming (on a multi-year basis) and poised to enter a 3 – 6 month surge, a likely 6 – 12 month rally (into late-’23), and potentially a 1 – 2 year advance – lasting into 2024. That remains the case.
Downside price objectives were being met, monthly & multi-year cycles were bottoming, and the overall wave structure – though dramatically different in the two metals – was showing that both Gold & Silver were poised to set multi-year lows in late-2022.
At the time, these publications detailed Silver cycle lows in early-Sept’ 22 and Gold cycle lows in Nov ’22. When Silver bottomed, in concert with those cycle lows, it also revealed what was the likely course for the ensuing year(s). This was reiterated in the Nov ’22 INSIIDE Track, which explained:
10-31-22 – “Since the early-’21 peak, Silver has declined in a fairly clear 3-wave structure… In Elliott Wave terms, that is a textbook 3-3-5 corrective (‘a-b-c’) wave… This entire decline (Feb ‘21 – Sept ‘22) could be a larger-degree ‘B’ wave decline of a multi-year, upside ‘A-B-C’ correction… if a 1 – 2 year bottom is set near current levels, Silver would likely embark on a new 1 – 2.5-year advance and ultimately exceed its early-’21 high… “
That wave structure was again illustrated in the April 11, ’23 The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure, a copy of which is included above.
Along with that were a couple of wave diagrams discussing Gold’s unfolding ‘triple top’ and the likely ramifications of that pattern (an ultimate breakout higher, later in 2023)…
The Dollar Index fulfilled its weekly trend pattern – projecting a drop to new lows – and its negative weekly 21 MAC signal – as well as its outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower on July 7. That was/is expected to spur a quick, sharp drop that could stretch into late-July.
The Dollar is still expected to set a secondary high on Aug 14 – 25, ’23 – fulfilling 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progressions…
The Euro fulfilled the outlook for a rally into mid-July and would not show any signs of weakness until a daily close below 1.1160/ECU. This advance could stretch into late-July before a correction into late-Aug ’23…
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month consolidation phases between their late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows and the subsequent cycle highs set on May 3 – 5…
Those early-May highs reinforced the focus on late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 for the next multi-month peaks in Gold & Silver… That would then be expected to spur a decline into Aug 21 – 25, ’23, the convergence of multiple cycles and timing indicators in Gold – including a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
It is also the mid-point of the latest phase of the ~17-week high-high-low-low-low-low (June 26 – 30) – (high; Oct 23 – Nov 3, ’23) Cycle Progression and, as a result, would reinforce the future cycle peak in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 if a low were set at that time.
If the late-Aug ’23 low is a higher low in Gold, it would set the stage for a significantly bullish period to follow. With Gold already setting a triple top near 2080/GC – over the past ~three years – it is likely to breakout above that level and accelerate higher before reaching the early-Nov ’23 cycle peak.
[Reserved for subscribers] is a prime time for an accelerated rally if the late-Aug ’23 low concurs…
The XAU & HUI re-entered neutral territory while fulfilling near-term analysis for rallies to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI after fulfilling the outlook for intermediate lows in late-June/early-July.
The next decisive low is expected in mid-Aug ’23 – the convergence of a ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. In between now and then, a multi-week peak is more likely in late-July/early-Aug ’23.
The action of the next two weeks should hone the outlook for that future low… with the weekly trends and weekly 21 MACs poised to play pivotal roles.”
Gold & Silver have remained in a corrective phase since fulfilling projections for multi-month peaks on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They have repeatedly been forecast to set their next multi-month low in the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge. The outlook for late-August – early-Nov ’23 is taking shape and could produce surprising results.
All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making! The Dollar is projected to set a future peak on Aug 14 – 25 while Gold is likely setting a multi-month low.
The XAU & HUI are similar and projected to set decisive lows surrounding mid-Aug ’23. The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 17/18, ’23).
Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
Where are Metals Likely to Bottom in Mid-to-Late-Aug ’23?
Is an Upside Breakout Likely Before Early-Nov ‘23??
Will the Dollar Index Set a Pivotal Peak on Aug 14 – 25, ‘23?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.