Gold, Silver & XAU Project Sharp 2 – 4 Week Rallies from Early-Oct ’23 Cycle Lows.
10-07-23 – “Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrective phases from their multi-month cycle highs on May 3 – 5. They added another leg to the overall wave ‘II’ retracement of the Sept/Oct ’22 – early-May ’23 rally.
The ~8-month rally – into cycle highs in early-May ’23 – was a 5-wave advance, likely representing the first primary rally (wave ‘I’ of ‘V’) of a developing larger-magnitude multi-year advance.
It is similar to the first advance (wave ‘I’ of ‘V’) of the 2016 – 2020/21 bull market as well. At the time, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2022/2023, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2016, Gold subsequently retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during that ~5-month sell-off.
In 2023, Gold has retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during this ~5-month sell-off.
There are also some noteworthy contrasts…
In 2016, Gold rallied to the first of three peaks at the same level (~1360/GC) – a triple top that would not be exceeded until ~3.5 years from the start of that multi-year advance.
In May 2023, Gold rallied to the third of three peaks at the same level (~2060/GC) – a triple top that should be much closer to the time for an upside breakout. (~Feb ’24 is ~3.5 years from the first peak in that series and is worth monitoring.)
As for price and wave analysis, the ‘II’ wave decline (from the early-May ’23 ‘I’ wave peak) would ideally drop back to – and bottom near – the 4th wave of lesser degree support, which was created at the early-March ’23 lows.
Gold created that support at 1880 on a Dec ’23 contract basis but at ~1808/GC on a continuous-contract basis. It has spiked below that level on a contract basis while holding it on a continuous-contract basis.
(In the GLD ETF, the 4th wave of lesser degree support is at 168.19. This past week’s low was at 168.30/GLD.)
Silver’s 4th wave of lesser degree support is at 20.61/SIZ & 19.83/SI. It just spiked down to 20.85/ SIZ and initially bounced.
From a timing perspective, there is a good chance for a 1 – 2 month (or longer) low at this time…
If Silver bottomed in the past week (Oct 2 – 6, ’23), it would complete a .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – while fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression AND a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
This is also the same time of year when Gold set its lowest weekly close in 2022 – a 1-year/~360-degree cycle from its ~Oct ’22 major bottom.
A low at this time would still allow ample time for Gold & Silver to undergo a quick, sharp 3 – 4-week rally into early-Nov ’23 – when a 1 – 2 month high is more likely. And all of this is setting the stage for 2024, when the next big advance in metals is likely to follow a secondary top in the US Dollar.
Gold & Silver spiked lower into early-Oct ’23 and initially bounced with both metals neutralizing their daily downtrends after preventing their intra-month trends from turning negative. It would take daily closes above 18.65/SIZ & 22.41/SIZ to turn those intra-month trends up and signal multi-week lows.
The XAU & HUI also remain in corrective phases that have been in effect since their mid-April & early-May ’23 highs and which also appear to be ‘II’ waves of a larger, developing wave structure on a multi-year basis.
A low in the first half of Oct ‘23 would fulfill similar-magnitude AND duration declines (‘c = a’ on a price & time basis) – potentially completing those wave ‘II’ declines and setting the stage for a more significant advance to begin taking hold.
There is also a larger-magnitude monthly cycle that has been discussed throughout the past 5 – 7 years (particularly in Gold). It could impact all the metals’ markets at this time…
This is a 12.5 – 13.5-month/~54 – 59-week cycle that has recently created a high (Aug ‘19) – high (Aug ‘20) – low (Aug/Sept ‘21) – low (Sept ‘22) Cycle Progression that portends another low in the first half of Oct ‘23.
On a short-term basis, the XAU has turned its intra-month trend up while neutralizing its daily downtrend. It needs a daily close above 109.93/ XAU to reinforce that. The HUI still needs a daily close above 206.79/HUI to turn its new intra-month trend up and signal a multi-week low.”
Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) have entered bullish cycles that begin in early-Oct ‘23… and are expected to spur a sharp multi-week rally into mid-Oct (Silver) and potentially early-Nov ’23 (Gold). Middle East Cycles collide in Oct ’23 and also in 2024, potentially reinforcing this outlook.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! The 90/10 Rule of Cycles in Gold continues to project a sharp advance in October ’23 – in the final weeks leading into a (potential) Oct/Nov ’23 peak. The weekly 21 MARCs concur.
Where are Metals Likely to Rally? Will Middle East War Cycles Have an Impact??
How Does 90/10 Rule of Cycles Project Sharp Rally in October ’23?
Why are mid-Oct (Silver) & early-Nov ’23 (Gold) Cycle Highs the Key to 2024 Outlook?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.