Gold, Silver & XAU – Sequence of 2020/2021 Surges Projected! Escalating Highs into 2Q ’21?
04/30/20 INSIIDE Track: “Gold & Silver fulfilled projections for an early-March ‘20 peak – in focus for over a year – and the resulting sell-offs during which Gold plunged precisely to its downside target at 1450.0/GC. That was the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ (the 4th wave low of the 5-wave advance from Sept. ‘18 into March ‘20) and the level that needed to be tested before Gold’s multi-year advance could resume.
Gold & gold stocks (XAU) plunged to major support levels and bottomed in mid-March without turning their weekly trends negative. That reinforced the wave structure, which projected a subsequent rally to new highs. While that was unfolding, Silver plummeted to a decisive convergence of cycles – most of which are related to the same cycle.
Silver dropped into an uncanny web of 7-week-related cycles in mid-March ‘20 – perpetuating a series of cycles that has governed Silver for several years.
March 16 – 20, 2020 fulfilled a 70-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – low Cycle Progression and a 14-week low (July 10 – 14, ’17) – high (Feb. 18 – 22, ’18) – low (Nov. 12 – 16, ’18) – high (Sept. 2 – 6, ’19) – low (Dec. 9 – 13, ’19) – low Cycle Sequence.
Mar. 16 – 20, ‘20 was the midpoint of the 28-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Dec. 9 – 13, ‘19 low and fulfilled an overlapping 28-week high (Feb. ’19) – high (Sept. ’19) – low Cycle Progression. It also fulfilled a 7-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
It also fulfilled an overall 51-month high (Sept. ‘11) – low (Dec. ‘15) – (low; Mar. ‘20) Cycle Progression in the overall precious metals markets.
Silver remains focused on the next phase of the 7-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and is expected to set a secondary low on May 4 – 8…
Before addressing that, it is important to respond to several inquiries and reiterate the outlook for 2020 – 2021. From a multi-year perspective, 2020 – 2021 has been forecast to be the opposite (flipside) of 2016 – 2018 – from a wave perspective.
This has been illustrated many times and involves a contrast to the series of ‘1-2’ moves that unfolded in 2016 – 2018. Those ‘1-2’ moves refer to a wave ‘1’ rally followed by a wave ‘2’ decline that bottoms at a higher level.
As Gold’s uptrend began to gain momentum, that series of ascending ‘1-2’ waves (rally & decline followed by new rally and decline to higher low followed by new rally and decline to higher low – what is sometimes referred to as a ‘1-2, 1-2, 1-2’ in Elliott-Wavespeak) gave way to strong rallies.
That led to analysis for a series of wave ‘5’ culminations beginning in early-March ’20 and potentially lasting into 2Q 2021 – a series of ‘4-5’ wave sequences (new highs followed by corrections followed by rallies to higher highs).
The Mar. ’20 high was forecast to complete the 5-wave structure from the late-2018 low, while only representing the wave ‘3’ of a larger-degree advance (since each larger-magnitude impulse wave breaks down into 5 lesser-degree waves within that overall rally).
When discussing expectations for early-March ’20 to time the peak of an initial ‘5th’ wave rally, it was repeatedly stressed that that ‘5th’ wave would only be the first of a series of higher highs that would represent successive wave ‘5’ peaks – each being of one magnitude higher than the one before.
This pattern could stretch into May 2021.
As a market enters its culminating phase(s), the swings begin to accelerate. The first two weeks of March powerfully validated that. While Gold & gold stocks were fulfilling critical downside price targets, Silver was fulfilling a myriad of weekly cycle lows on March 16 – 20.
At the same time, another factor was helping to support metals…
The overall stock market was doing the same thing – fulfilling analysis for a decisive bottom by/on March 23. The March 18, 2020 Weekly Re-Lay Alert highlighted that analysis and was titled: “The Week for a Low… in Stocks & Silver”.
It included much of the above analysis and a buy signal for the overall stock market. A buy signal was also triggered in Silver, right around 12.00/SI [refer to latest publications for updated trading strategies]…
The XAU resumed its multi-year advance after plunging to its monthly HLS (extreme downside target) and spiking down to 6 – 12 month support in sync with weekly & monthly cycle lows in mid-March. In doing so, it attacked the lower end of its ~4-year trading range but held above that level – maintaining the perceived and projected wave structure detailed throughout the past few years.
In line with its weekly trend pattern (which turned neutral but could not turn down, portending a rally to new highs), the Gold/Silver Index signaled a multi-month bottom and set its sights on May 2021 – the time for the next (expected) multi-quarter peak.
The accompanying analysis (page 9) is from the Sept. 2018 issue of The Bridge – ’Metals & Miners: What’s Ahead’. That publication explained why Gold and Gold stocks should bottom in Sept. ’18 and enter a multi-year advance into late-2020 or early-2021.
While multi-year cycles could still time that peak in late-2020, there is an equally significant convergence of weekly & monthly cycles in/around May 2021. So, the XAU is expected to extend this advance at least into 4Q ‘20 and potentially into 2Q ‘21. The action between now and late-’20 should help clarify the magnitude of both cycle highs.
From a price perspective, the XAU has had two primary upside targets. The first was a 1 – 2 year objective near 110.0/XAU. The second was the 2 – 3 year objective – the primary upside target for this projected advance – near [reserved for subscribers].”
Gold, Silver & XAU Index (Gold/Silver Index) confirming new bull market after bottoming in perfect sync with multi-month cycle lows on March 16 – 20. That was/is projected to spur new advances into late-2020 and likely into May 2021 with Silver gains likely exceeding Gold gains during that period, as Silver & metals stocks forecast to track closer with (bullish) overall stock market.
Secondary low projected for May 4 – 8 as Metals reinforce outlook for accelerated advances into late-2020/early-2021.
How Likely are Gold and Silver to Exceed 2011 Highs?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.