Gold, Silver, XAU & HUI Project Pullback into Late-April; Spike High in Early-May.

04-19-23 – “The markets are completing the first month of the Natural Year, tracing out a trading range that should hold sway over many of these markets for months to come.  As explained many times before:

 

03-29-23 – “For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 20, ‘23).  However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons.

If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox, the first month of that year would end on April 19/20.  It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend… It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. 

From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.  This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.   

Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it. 

You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).

In many ways, April 19/20 acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year… The key takeaway involves what occurs during that initial ‘month’ and what the markets reveal about the ensuing 11 ‘months’ of that new Natural Year.”  [End 3/29/23 excerpt]

 

There are times, like in 2022, when individual market cycles converge with this date and increase its significance.  There are other times, like in 2023, when market cycles diverge a bit… reaching extremes a week or two later…

Gold & Silver remain bullish, fulfilling the outlook for a new 1 – 2 month surge from daily/weekly/monthly cycle lows in early-March ’23.  However, they have already reached critical upside price targets so a peak could take hold at any time.

In the ideal cyclic scenario, they would stretch final highs into early-May ‘23 and fulfill a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.  It is possible that Silver fulfills that, and spikes to a new high in early-May ’23…

With its April 13 high, Gold fulfilled an overlapping 70 – 71-day/~10-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that is very similar to the cycle that helped pinpoint the 4Q ’22 low.  It also fulfilled a 24-day low-high-(high) AND a 22-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.  It would not validate those cycles however, and confirm a multi-week top, until a daily close below [reserved for subscribers].

The XAU & HUI surged into mid-month, peaking right at monthly resistance and also very close to monthly 21 MARC resistance.  In doing so, they matched the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) while peaking ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 multi-month highs.  The XAU also matched the price magnitude of that advance.

Similar to Gold & Silver, price action, wave targets and structure, and related timing indicators have all been fulfilled and are signaling a top.  A sell-off into late-April is now more likely and was just validated by the HUI turning its daily trend down.”

Gold & Silver have steadily advanced since fulfilling the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC).  At that time, they entered the ideal setup – based on inflationary factors (slowing), interest rates, and the Dollar (peaking) – for the onset of a very bullish 1 – 2 year period in precious metals.  Platinum is signaling something similar.  2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises (in and out of the markets) for precious metals, with multiple advances projected.

The second advance was expected to begin in early-March ‘23, after metals completed ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial advances), and to last into early-May ’23 (May 3 – 5) when the next intermediate high is most likely.  They have just set what are likely to be 1 – 2 week peaks that could spur some near-term selling into late-April.  A final spike high is still possible in early-May before metals would enter a prolonged corrective phase.

The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a multi-month low by/on March 6 – 10 – perpetuating an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle.  The monthly trend projected a strong rally to new intra-year highs to follow, which has been fulfilled – signaling a likely 1 – 2 week peak.  A sell-off into late-April is likely and could be followed by a final spike high in early-May ’23.

How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023? 

Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding… or Just a Comparable Advance??

Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.