Gold & Silver Portend New Rally; Stocks Complete Rebound & Prep for Sell-off.
03-26-25 – “The Natural Year – Spring has sprung and a new ‘year’ has begun. It is a time of seasonal and psychological change that dates back millennia. The vernal equinox has ushered in a new beginning that has climatological, emotional and market-related implications. The first part of that sets the stage for the ‘year’ that follows.
The reason has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the vernal equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until vernal equinox 2026).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘25). However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons…
For now, the focus is on the next 2 – 4 weeks – leading into April 19th – the Date of Aggression and the completion of the first month (‘opening range’) of the new Natural Year. That is a critical factor in determining the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has had a dramatic impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in precise sync with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun and established their calendars based on that focus – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death).
March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine. Just as that first month of NY 2022/23 ushered in that war, it will be interesting to see what the first month of NY 2025/26 reveals.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal.
Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20 to April 19/ 20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’ on many levels.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. More on that to follow.
Stock Indices initially bottomed on March 12/13th in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows while attacking and holding pivotal multi-month downside objectives and extreme weekly downside targets. They could still see lower lows in April but were expected to extend their rebounds into the current week.
That is when a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-July ’25 and could time a future low) culminate.
At the very least, key indexes were projected to rally to 20,370 – 20,445/NQM & 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR) and ideally to 20,760 – 20,989/NQM (greatest synergy at 20,935 – 20,989/NQM), 5890 – 5936/ESM, 3075 – 3095/IDX & 2193 – 2232/QRM.
They reached the initial targets with the DJIA peaking right at 42,821 as the NQ-100 peaked right at its descending daily 21 High MAC (20,528/NQM; high was 20,536/NQM). The DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 (initially) peaked similarly…
Gold & Silver are both positive with Gold remaining in a series of uptrends (rallying to new highs in what is likely a wave ‘5’ of a 5-wave advance from its Nov ‘25 low) while Silver has reentered its daily uptrend after twice neutralizing it… but not turning it down.
At the same time, Silver dropped to the high of its month-opening range (resistance turned into support) and reversed higher. That could spur a retest of the recent peak.
Gold could also see new highs as this ‘5th’ of ‘5th’ wave rally – from the Feb 28th low – has broken down into 4 smaller waves and could now see a wave v of 5 spur a spike high. Both metals bottomed in sync with their daily trend patterns. They would not turn negative until daily closes below 3004/GCJ & 33.16/SIK…
Silver remains in a ~6-month trading range and only neutralized its weekly downtrend once (it re-entered that weekly downtrend on March 21st). Congestion remains in force… with the prevailing potential for a retest of its December ’24 low. That potential is based on the weekly trend structure so it does not specify timing.
The XAU & HUI remain in weekly uptrends and spiked above their October ’24 peaks – a decisive level (on a weekly close basis) for the 3 – 6 month trend. Neither was able to close above those highs on a weekly basis, so some selling is likely to follow. The XAU would not, however, show any signs of a peak until a daily close below 171.50/XAU.
On a broader basis, the XAU remains on track for successive highs in mid-June & mid-Oct ’25.”
Gold & Silver are reinforcing divergent wave structures with both projecting a new short-term rally in the coming days. Silver remains under the influence of its weekly downtrend, projecting a ‘C’ wave decline back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK) before a multi-month correction is complete. So, any new rally could be short-lived.
A multi-month Silver low is likely in April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 is the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. That was just reinforced by stocks bouncing to their rebound targets and to multi-week cycle highs in late-March ’25. On a broader basis, they were projected to plunge 20 – 25% leading into early-April ’25 (daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ’25) so a new Danger Zone is imminent.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low projected a subsequent rally into late-April/early-May ’25, which remains on track. The Dollar peaked in January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a sharp (projected) decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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