Gold & Silver Diverging as Dollar Dives; Stocks Reinforce Danger Zone.
03-20-25 – “The Dollar Index retested its recent low and initially held… the Dollar Index remains in a multi-month downtrend and could spike as low as [reserved for subscribers]…
On a longer-term basis, the January ’25 peak is corroborating the potential for a 2025 sell-off AND the possibility for a 6 – 12 month or multi-year low to take hold in late-2025. In order to fulfill that, the Dollar Index would have to fulfill a number of technical and cyclical criteria along the way. One of those would be to drop below the mid-2023 low.
Here are a few timing factors that could usher in a decisive low in 4Q 2025… ideally in November ’25:
- A drop into November 2025 would create a form of wave symmetry with the Dollar Index declining for ~10 months – from its January ’25 high – and matching the ~10-month duration of the Sept ’22 – July ’23 decline.
- A low in Nov ’25 would fulfill a ~14-month low (July ’23) – low (Sept ’24) – (low; Nov ’25) Cycle Progression.
- A low in 4Q ’25 would fulfill a ~9-quarter low (2Q ’21) – low (3Q ’23) – (low; 4Q ’25) Cycle Progression.
- Other timing relationships & indicators point to 4Q ’25 as the ideal time for a 1 – 2 year low.
The Euro remains on track for an overall rally into April ’25, when a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurs…
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled analysis for sharp sell-offs into early-March with Bitcoin initially dropping right to its 50% retracement level (~79,000) and then to its pre- & post-Election levels (before the Nov ’24 accelerated surge) and 1 – 2 month support zones around 76,100 – 77,200/BTC.
That was/is projected to spur a quick surge in the current week… That remains the case and could stretch some buying into next week when a 32 – 34-day high-high-high-(high; March 25 – 27th) Cycle Progression recurs.
Gold & Silver remain in near-term & 1 – 2 month (as well as 2 – 3-year) uptrends with Gold rallying to new highs in what is likely a wave ‘5’ of a 5-wave advance from its Nov ‘25 low…. Gold is attacking the initial upside target for this wave ‘5’ – where it matches the magnitude of the related wave ‘1’ (Nov 14 – Dec 12, ’25) – near 3040/GCJ. That is the minimum upside objective for that wave.
At the same time, it is attacking the initial upside price target for this overall 5-wave advance – from the mid-Nov ’25 low – where it matches the magnitude of the June – Oct ’24 advance. That is also the minimum upside objective for that advance since Gold is perceived to be in a multi-year uptrend since its late-2022 bottom…
Meanwhile, Silver remains in a ~6-month trading range and has only neutralized its weekly downtrend once. It briefly closed above 34.50/SIK but quickly sold off, so congestion remains in force. Silver remains a bit of an enigma with its weekly trend failing to re-enter positive territory (even though Gold and then the XAU re-entered positive trends in recent months)…
On a broader basis, Gold remains on track – in sync with its ~27-week & ~54-week cycles – to see successive (higher) peaks in early-May ’25 and then in November ’25.
The XAU & HUI remain in weekly uptrends and are spiking above their October ’24 peaks – a decisive level (on a weekly close basis) for the 3 – 6 month trend. The XAU would not show any signs of a peak until a daily close below 168.00/XAU…
On a broader basis, the XAU remains on track for successive highs in mid-June & mid-Oct ’25 with the (moderate) potential for an intervening peak in mid-April – the midpoint of a related ~4-month cycle and a ~6-month/~180-degree cycle from its October ’24 peak.”
Gold & Silver remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends within divergent wave structures. Gold is bullish while Silver is under the influence of its weekly downtrend, projecting a ‘C’ wave decline back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK) before a multi-month correction is complete. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 also remains the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low projected a subsequent rally into late-April/early-May ’25, which remains on track. The Dollar peaked in January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a sharp (projected) decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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