Gold Stocks (XAU) Confirming 2018 Outlook.
Gold Stocks (XAU) Confirming 2018 Outlook.
04/30/18 INSIIDE Track:
The XAU rallied up to 1 – 2 month resistance around 86.00 and reversed lower. This came after it turned its weekly 21 MAC up – a situation that could remain intact for another two weeks (or more) if the XAU does not drop below 76.45. However, the intra-year & monthly trends remain down and could continue to suppress any rallies.
Periodically, it is important to step back and review the longer-term trends and multi-year outlook in order to keep intermediate analysis in perspective. There are a few key points for the XAU that need to be reiterated on a recurring basis:
— In contrast to the metals (Gold & Silver), the Gold stocks remain in a more negative trend & wave structure. While dropping into Dec. ‘16, the XAU reversed its monthly trend back down (in Oct. ‘16) – something that Gold has not done.
During its three subsequent rebounds (peaking in Feb. ‘17, Sept. ‘17 & Jan. ‘18), the XAU never even managed to neutralize this monthly downtrend. That is why, since the early-2017 rebound, INSIIDE Track has described the likelihood for (at least) a retest of the Dec. ‘16 low at 71.63/XAU before the Gold stocks would be in a position to mount an advance that could exceed the Aug. ‘16 peak.
— The XAU has a recurring 30 – 34 month cycle that has governed its multi-year swings since the May ‘05 low – the onset of its major advances & subsequent decline. That created a 30 – 34 month low (5/05) – high (3/08) – high (12/10) – low (6/13) – low (1/16) Cycle Sequence that portends a likely 6 – 12 month bottom in July – Nov. 2018.
The more recent phases of that cycle – which create the more reliable, or at least precise, movement – create a 30 – 31 month high (Dec. ‘10) – low (Jun. ‘13) – low (Jan. ‘17) Cycle Progression – targeting a future low for July – Aug. 2018.
The Jan./Feb. ’18 sell-off perpetuated a corroborating ~6-month high (Aug. ’16) – high (Feb. ’17) – high (Aug. ’17; highest monthly close) – low (Feb. ’18; lowest monthly close since March ‘16) – low (Aug. 2018) Cycle Progression.
— The Dec./Jan. rally perfectly fulfilled projections for a sharp rebound to 92.87 – 93.06/XAU – a tight range of targets, extreme targets, and monthly resistance zones including the monthly 21 MARC and 21 MAC. By beginning 2018 with a surge to its monthly upside extreme targets at the same time it was testing the 21 High MAC and flattening it (turning down in Feb. ‘18), the XAU powerfully reinforced that another wave down was imminent.
Additional 2 – 4 week swings, sometimes violent in nature, are still likely in the context of this broader analysis that remains in force.”
The XAU (Gold Stocks Index) reinforced its early-year peak and its overall outlook with the action in April 2018. It is developing a slightly different outlook than Gold & Silver, a pattern that should be validated by the action in early-May. A pivotal level of resistance, and a critical timing indicator, are being monitored for clarification. This should also help determine price targets for June, August and ultimately Nov. 2018. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Trackfor additional analysis and/or trading strategies.