Gold Trading: 3-Week Bounce Peaks on Nov. 1/4; Weekly Downtrend Resumes with Reversal Lower on Nov. 4 – 8. XAU Consolidates.
11/05/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: “Gold & Silver remain stuck in the same 7 – 8-week range of congestion, ushered in by the late-Aug./early-Sept. ‘19 cycle highs. Those highs fulfilled the latest phase of ~7, ~13 – 14 & 27 – 29-week cycles while reinforcing the latest 54 – 59 week cycle – by peaking at its midpoint.
Those highs are still expected to hold for several months, even though a retest of them is possible in Silver (and XAU, based on their respective weekly trends).
All the metals initially plunged into Oct. 1 when Gold reached its initial, intermediate downside wave target at ~1467.0/GCZ while bottoming very near its ascending weekly 21 High MAC. It soon turned its weekly trend down, projecting a 1 – 3 week reactive bounce (from Oct. 11) followed by a new leg down.
It fulfilled that on Nov. 1 while daily price action left open the potential for some additional upside into this week, before a peak is set… Gold was unable to turn its daily trend up, leaving open the potential for a drop back to 1465.0/GCZ. That potential would remain intact until a daily close above 1525.8/GCZ…
The daily 21 MACs and 21 MARCs are similar. In Gold, these indicators are negative. In Silver, they are neutral. In the XAU, they are positive. Conclusion? Congestion!
Then there are cycles…
The overriding 13 – 14 week cycle projects a subsequent, 1 – 2 month (or longer) peak on Dec. 2 – 13. In Silver & the XAU, that could be a retest of – or spike above – their late-Aug./early-Sept. highs. In the case of Gold, it is more likely to be at or below its early-Sept. peak. Here again, that is likely to perpetuate the multi-month period of congestion that is in force.
In between the mid-Oct. lows and anticipated early-Dec. highs, a 1 – 2 week (or longer) high was expected on Nov. 4 – 8 – fulfilling Gold’s weekly trend pattern, Silver’s daily trend pattern and daily cycles in the XAU…
The XAU remains the most bullish of the three. It (like Gold) fulfilled its intermediate downside target (86.00 – 86.80/XAU) – spiking down to 86.84 and bottoming. It also fulfilled its 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – and only neutralized (but did not turn down) its weekly uptrend while bottoming. At the very least, that low should hold for 4 – 6 weeks, but is expected to hold longer…
This type of interaction has been described before, where the stronger market rallies sharply during 3 – 5 day up phases (as the weaker market struggles to muster up anemic rebounds) and then the weaker market sells off more sharply during the intervening down phases (as the stronger market merely pulls back and holds support). That could continue between Gold & the XAU in the coming weeks.
There are other factors that could impact the XAU (and to a lesser extent, Gold & Silver) in the short term. They will be discussed in impending Weekly Re-Lay publications. Until a weekly close below 87.48/XAU, the XAU remains in positive territory and could work progressively higher into early-Dec.”
Gold fulfilled projections for ~3-week bounce from mid-Oct., peaking on Nov. 1/4 (with most other metals) and reversing lower. Throughout the entire 3-week rally, Gold’s daily & weekly trends remained in negative territory but constructive in the XAU. Gold has intriguing cycles that could produce a low on Nov. 11.
What Do Cycles Project for Nov./Dec. 2019?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.