Gold Trading: Gold & Silver Pull Back; 2nd Surge Likely into Mid-Nov.
10/30/21 Weekly Re-Lay – Gold & Silver fulfilled expectations for an initial rally – setting intraday highs on Oct 22 and daily close highs on Oct 25 – the time when Gold’s 21 – 22-week high (Feb ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – high (Jan ’21) – high (Jun ’21) Cycle Progression converged with the HUI’s (and many mining shares’) 11-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
They have since pulled back but remain positive on a daily trend and 2 – 4 week trend basis. Silver remains above its rising daily 21 High MAC and could see a new reversal higher to begin Nov.
The first half of Nov. is a pivotal time, based on multiple indicators. First there is the weekly trend in Silver, which has turned neutral but would not turn up until a weekly close above 24.92/SIZ. Then there is the weekly 21 MAC and 21 MARC in Gold, which is entering a decisive 2-week period…
On Nov 8 – 12, the inversely-correlated 21 MARC will plunge and bring the 21 Low MARC and 21 Low MAC into close proximity around 1765/GCZ. If Gold can remain above that level for the next two weeks, it would prime the weekly 21 MAC for a reversal higher – a (potentially) corroborating factor to Gold’s recent rally. The daily trends, new intra-month trends and daily 21 MACs should help clarify.
That is also intriguing since the weekly 40 MARC – another indicator I watch for larger-magnitude trend confirmation (but rarely discuss) is also poised to plunge over the next 2 – 3 weeks and the next 4 – 6 weeks. If Gold holds near current levels and can rally back to recent highs, it would quickly turn its corresponding (inversely-correlated) 21 and 40 MACs up at about the same time.
This should also be viewed in the broader context – both from a timing and price perspective. Metals bottomed during a very synergistic convergence of cycles in late-Sept. That has the potential to hold for many months… if price action can confirm.
Similarly, Silver bottomed at a very synergistic convergence of pivotal support levels in late-Sept. That has the potential to hold for many months, and spur a major rally, IF price action can confirm. (See Nov. ’21 INSIIDE Track for expanded analysis.)
Bottom Line: Precious Metals have just come through a decisive period and initially rallied. They need to do more, however, to signal that a new bull market is getting ready to take hold…
The XAU & HUI fulfilled analysis for a rally into (at least) Oct 22, the latest phase of the HUI’s 11-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, and up to initial upside targets at 136.54 – 137.25/XAU and 267 – 273.00/HUI.
While fulfilling those initial upside objectives, the XAU turned its weekly trend up – a decisive signal. That usually occurs at the peak of an initial rally… Since setting those recent peaks, these indexes have corrected and turned neutral but cannot turn their daily trends down until Nov. 2, at the very earliest. (To do so, they would need to close below the lowest level of Oct 29 and Nov 1.)
Until/unless that occurs, they maintain the potential to extend this rally into Nov. ’21 when the XAU has a 5-month low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression… and up to 1 – 2 month resistance at 141.88 – 144.51/XAU and 275.90 – 281.15/HUI.”
Gold & Silver as well as mining shares (XAU & HUI Indexes) are surging from multi-month cycle lows in late-Sept (when weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottomed) and projecting an additional surge in Nov ‘21. They topped on Oct 22 – in perfect sync with daily cycles – and are preparing for a second surge in the first half of November. Gold is likely to spike above 1880/GCZ as the XAU is targeting ~144.50 and the HUI targeting ~280.0/HUI… where 1 – 2 month peaks are most likely to occur.
What Should Follow Projected Nov ’21 Highs?
Are Higher Highs Likely During Next (Similar) Cycle Convergence in 1Q ’22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.