Gold Trading: Gold Poised for ~1760/GC Low; Rally into Jan 3 – 7 ‘22.
11/29/21 INSIIDE Track – Gold & Silver remain above the lows set in late-Sept – when they fulfilled a myriad of cycle lows including Silver’s ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression. That was forecast to spark an initial rally into late-Oct and ultimately into Nov 15 – 19, when Gold cycles projected a multi-week top.
Gold & Silver reinforced that potential with weekly LHRs, weekly trend reversals and weekly 21 MAC reversals identifying Nov 15 – 19 as the ideal time for a 1 – 2 month peak followed by a multi-week decline. They quickly fulfilled that and Gold identified ~1760/GC as pivotal support that should hold and help create a secondary low.
That is where Gold now finds itself.
Silver is completing an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at start of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end) – showing additional weakness and projecting further downside into early-Dec. On a 3 – 4 month basis, however, it remains in a trading range…
Jan. 3 – 7, ’22 is when the primary ~7-week cycle (that timed the Nov 16/17 peak) recurs and could time a higher magnitude peak. On a broader basis…
While bottoming in late-Sept, Silver completed a 50% retracement of its entire 2020 – 2021 rally, reinforcing a developing range trading pattern with 21 – 21.50/SI as the midpoint and likely support (the 2015 – 2020 range was between 12 – 21 and the ensuing July ‘20 – Sept ‘21 trading range between 21 – 30).
If Silver ultimately breaks out above 30, it could double that range and make it back up to ~39.00/SI – another ~9.00 points above 30.0/SI. 39.00/SI would also be a normal wave target wherein the new rally (from a low near 21.00/SI) would equal the 2020/ 2021 rally from 12.00 – 30.00/SI.
Silver also tested and held a pivotal level of multi-year resistance turned into support – the 3Q ‘16 peak near 21.00/SI. As it was testing and holding all that support, Silver also tested and reversed higher from the rising monthly 21 Low MAC.
All of this reinforces the critical nature of support near 21.00/SI. As long as Silver remains above that level, it finds itself in what is likely the early stages of a new 1 – 2 year uptrend. It should not close below 21.00/SI if that is to remain the case.
From a timing perspective, the recent low is also critical. If it holds and Silver enters a new bull market, that could/should last into [reserved for subscribers].
The XAU & HUI rallied right to their late-July/early-Aug ’21 highs – the initial upside objectives triggered when they bottomed while fulfilling projections for a multi-month low in late-Sept/early-Oct. At that time, the XAU retraced 50% of its 2020/21 rally (similar to Silver) and bottomed right at or just above the convergence of 3 – 6 month, 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year support levels at 110 – 115.0.
The HUI concurred, bottoming in perfect sync with a consistent ~3-Year Cycle that timed the secondary high in Sept. 2012 followed by the culmination of the ensuing plunge in Sept. 2015. The HUI subsequently set a multi-year low in Sept. 2018 – the next phase of that ~3-Year Cycle – and was projected to do the same in Sept. 2021.
Reinforcing that, these indexes fulfilled a consistent 29 – 31 week low (Nov ’18) – low (May ’19) – high (Dec ‘19/Jan ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept 17 – Oct 4, ’21) Cycle Sequence that had also been projecting a multi-month bottom in late-Sept ’21. All of that highlights why the late-Sept ’21 lows are expected to hold during this latest correction.
They were expected to rally into Oct 18 – 22, pull back for 1 – 2 weeks, and then rally into Nov 15 – 19. when multiple mining shares portended an intermediate high. They reached 1 – 2 month upside targets at that time and signaled a higher-magnitude peak. That could lead to [reserved for subscribers]”
Gold & Silver, XAU & HUI Indexes surged from multi-month cycle lows in late-Sept (when weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottomed) into Nov 15 – 19 – when daily & weekly cycles peaked. Gold topped near 1880/GCZ – the primary upside target for this overall advance – and signaled a drop to pivotal support near 1760/GC. The next intermediate high is expected on Jan 3 – 6, ’22.
Why Is Secondary Low Likely Near 1760/GC?
Could That Spur New Multi-Month Advance??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.