Gold Trading: Gold, Silver, Mining Shares Confirming Major Low!
10/11/21 INSIIDE Track Update – Gold & Silver are on the verge of confirming a multi-week reversal higher. They fulfilled intermediate analysis for overall declines into late-Sept/early-Oct with Gold testing weekly support and bottoming without giving a daily close below 1720.0/GCZ (pivot point).
They also bottomed in sync with weekly extreme support patterns. Gold’s weekly HLS indicator projected a 1 – 2 month low for the second half of Sept. (by Oct 1). That is when both bottomed.
They reversed higher on Sept 30 – 180 degrees (6 months) from the Mar 30/31 lows in metals and mining shares – an ideal time for a low. They have also initially fulfilled monthly and weekly cycles in Silver that projected a multi-month low in late-Sept/early-Oct ‘21.
That fulfilled a ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression as Silver nearly completed a 50% retracement of its Mar – Aug ’20 advance (~12.00 to ~30.00/SI)…
Since late-Sept, Gold has already evolved through a textbook reversal pattern – rallying and quickly turning its daily trend up and then pulling back for two days into mid-week.
While pulling back, it held above its declining daily 21 Low MAC and then entered a new rally – right to its declining daily 21 High MAC. That repelled Gold again, sending it back toward the opposing 21 Low MAC while giving that channel time to slow its descent.
Based on the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARC, the 21 MACs have a much better chance of turning up toward the end of the current week. Ideally, Gold would rally and close above its daily 21 High MAC around mid-week and then turn that average higher in the ensuing (or coinciding) days.
Gold needs a daily close above 1771.5/GCZ to turn its intra-month trend up (and potentially close above the descending daily 21 High MAC) and project a likely surge back to ~1840/GCZ. A daily close above 22.805/SIZ would turn Silver’s intra-month trend up, as well…
The XAU & HUI reversed higher in lockstep with yearly, monthly & weekly cycles as well as their respective weekly HLS patterns. That is when an intermediate low was expected, followed by an initial rally into (at least) Oct 18 – 22.
In late-Sept., they fulfilled a consistent 29 – 31 week low (Nov ’18) – low (May ’19) – high (Dec ‘19/ Jan ’20) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept 17 – Oct 1, ’21) Cycle Sequence. Both turned their intra-month trends up on Oct 6 with the HUI turning its daily trend up at the same time. The HUI ended the week by closing above its daily 21 High MAC – all projecting additional upside into mid-month.
On a broader scale, the HUI has followed a consistent ~3-Year Cycle since Sept. 2012. That created a ~3-year high (Sept ’12) – low (Sept ’15) – low (Sept ’18) – low (Sept ’21) Cycle Progression and the likelihood for another low in Sept. 2021.
That ~3-Year Cycle subdivided into an 18-month low-low cycle – creating lows in Sept ’15, Mar ’17, Sept ’18 & Mar ’20 while projecting a subsequent low for late-Sept ’21.
A subsequent rally could last into Nov. ’21 when the XAU has a 5-month low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver as well as mining shares (XAU & HUI Indexes) fulfilled projections for sharp declines into late-Sept when weekly, monthly & yearly cycles bottomed and projected 3 – 6 month (or longer) lows. Silver likely set the low of a ‘c’ wave decline… ushering in the time for a new rally into 1Q ’22. The XAU attacked 3 – 6 month and 6 – 12 month price support near 115.00/XAU – where a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom was most likely.
All these factors powerfully reinforce analysis for a major low in late-Sept ‘21!
How would intermediate high in Nov ’21 impact cycles in 1Q ‘22?
What does this mean for the next multi-month cycle high in 1Q ’22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.