Gold Trading: Gold, Silver & XAU Fulfill Late-Aug. Cycles; Signal Imminent Reversal But Reinforce March ’20 Cycles… Is a September Sell-off Soon to be Seen?
08/31/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver remain in powerful uptrends, in the midst of a projected ~2-year bull market – from 3Q ’18 into 4Q ’20. They extended their advances into late-Aug., allowing Silver to attack its range-trading target at 18.500/SIU as metals stretched this latest advance 2 – 3 weeks beyond original expectations.
Gold also attained its ‘doubling of the range’ target, derived from its Aug. ’18 – Feb. ’19 rally. The range created by that rally (1208.6 – 1374.3/GCZ) projected a range target at 1540.0/GCZ. (1208.6 – 1374.3/GCZ = 165.7/GCZ // 1374.3 – 1540.0 = 165.7/GCZ.)
Its highest weekly close, so far, is at 1537.6/ GCZ. Gold’s high fulfilled a form of cyclic LHR – a low – high – high Cycle Progression. Gold set its bottom in Aug. ’18 and rallied for 27 weeks into late-Feb. ’19. That ‘low – high’ cycle projected an ensuing high 27 weeks later – on Aug. 26 – 30, ‘19. In many respects, Gold is at an upside extreme.
[If this past week’s peak holds, it would reinforce the outlook for a future peak in ~March 2020 – which would now also fulfill a ~27-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.]
Corroborating that, the past week was the third week after metals surged to attack their weekly LHR levels – a signal that usually precedes a 1 – 2 month peak by 1 – 3 weeks.
It would take daily closes below 1519.0/GCZ & 17.750/SIZ to give the first signs of a multi-week top and reversal lower…
The action of August also continued to fulfill what has been discussed since metals entered a more accelerated phase of their uptrends in May/June – that each successive high would hold for shorter amounts of time, produce progressively shallower corrections, and yield to new rallies and new highs on an accelerated timeline.
The XAU began the month of August by peaking on Aug. 6 – 9 and perpetuating an 18 – 21 day low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That ushered in a 1 – 2 week correction while projecting a subsequent high for Aug. 26 – 28 – the next phase of that cycle. The daily trend was the key.
The XAU corrected into Aug. 19 – 23 and could not turn its daily trend down, ushering in the potential for a rally to new highs. It extended its advance into Aug. 28 – the latest phase of that 18 – 21 day low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – and again peaked. It did that while fulfilling its range-trading target near 100.60/XAU (~60.60 – ~80.60 – ~100.60).
It would take a daily close below 98.00 to show the first sign of a top. If/when a reversal lower is confirmed, the XAU would be expected to correct into Sept. ’19 – in line with monthly and annual cycles – as well as a corroborating 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression (Sept. 23 – Oct. 4)…
Platinum turned its daily trend up and closed above its daily 21 High MAC on Aug. 27, removing any near-term bearish sentiment and projecting a rally to new highs as it ushered in the final phase of a ~3-month up cycle.
That allowed Platinum to surge into a 17-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.”
Precious metals peaking after stocks complete ‘August 2019 Plunge Cycles’ and fulfill projected low in late-Aug. ’19. Uncanny 27 – 29 Week Cycle (and web of related cycles) could time ANOTHER decisive turning point in Gold… and reinforce cycles converging in March 2020!
1525 – 1540.0/GC, 18.50/SI & 100.60/XAU upside objectives reached! Diminishing upside potential remains.
Is September Sell-off Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.