Gold Trading Technicals: Weekly Trend Signal Projects Reactive Bounce into early-Nov. Followed by New Decline! XAU Diverges.
10/19/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver remain in a ~6-week range of congestion, ushered in by the late-Aug./early-Sept. cycle highs. They initially plunged into Oct. 1 when Gold reached its initial, intermediate downside wave target at ~1467.0/GCZ while bottoming very near its ascending weekly 21 High MAC.
This past week, Gold again tested and rebounded from that same indicator. Since that occurred in the week after Gold turned its weekly trend down, it re-affirmed the potential for a 1 – 3 week reactive rebound. The conflicting weekly trend and weekly 21 MAC signals reinforce that consolidation is intact and more back-and-forth trading is likely in the coming weeks (or months).
Wave analysis and other price targets confirm that conclusion. Gold’s low fulfilled a basic ‘c = a’ wave target (new sell-off = initial sell-off) while attacking its weekly HLS and a key level of ‘resistance turned into support’, etc.) – while bottoming in lockstep with a recurring weekly cycle in the XAU.
Putting it simply, Gold retraced as far as it should if this is just a normal correction (and not a multi-month decline). Silver is a little different since it’s weekly trend would not turn down until a weekly close below 16.940/SIZ…
The XAU did spike to new lows, fulfilling its daily trend pattern while attacking its intermediate downside target (86.00 – 86.80/XAU). It also did that while declining into Oct. 16 – 17, the latest phase of an 11 – 12 trading day high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. (The next phase is in late-Oct. and could time a subsequent low.)
As explained last week, the recent fulfillment of its 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression combined with its weekly trend structure** placed the XAU in the prime position for a brief spike low and reversal higher in the current week.
(**The XAU had twice neutralized its weekly uptrend but would not turn it down until a weekly close below 87.48/XAU.)
The XAU did just that, retesting and holding its low and rebounding enough to prevent the weekly trend from turning down.”
Gold provided a powerful confirming signal (on Oct. 11) to the early-Sept. ‘19 peak – turning its weekly trend down. That is a lagging/confirming signal that usually triggers a multi-week (2 – 3 week) reactive bounce followed by a new leg down – a decline to lower lows. Watch Nov. 4 – 8 for next reversal down.
What Does Weekly Trend Signal Bode for Nov./Dec. 2019?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.