Gold Trading Tutorial: Powerful Weekly Trend Signal Triggered! Portends Bounce into early-Nov. Followed by New Sell-off!
10/12/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver have pulled back after rallying for the first three days of the new month but failing to turn the intra-month trends (or daily trends) up. This comes after Gold plunged into Oct. 1 and reached its initial, intermediate downside wave target at ~1467.0/GCZ.
It bottomed very near its ascending weekly 21 High MAC (1462.0/GCZ) as it fulfilled the primary downside target for that 2 – 4 week decline.
Gold’s low fulfilled a basic ‘c = a’ wave target (new decline = initial decline) while retesting a convergence of downside targets at 1462 – 1467/ GCZ (weekly HLS, previous July 19 high – a pivotal level of ‘resistance turned into support’, etc.) – bottoming in sync with a recurring weekly cycle in the XAU.
As a result, Gold has retraced as far as it should if this is just a normal correction. However, it just turned its weekly trend down – indicating that this is likely to be a higher-magnitude decline and make it to lower levels in the coming weeks.
That affirms what has been concluded about the higher-magnitude cycles fulfilled in late-Aug./early-Sept. (that portended a larger-degree sell-off to follow). Silver’s weekly trend would not turn down, however, until a weekly close below 16.940/SIZ.
Since both Gold & Silver were unable to turn their daily trends up, they remain poised for a drop into – and potential 1 – 2 week low on – Oct. 14/15. That is corroborated by Gold’s weekly trend pattern, since a reversal signal often leads to an initial low in the ensuing week (Oct. 14 – 18, in this case)…
Gold & Silver rallied for the first three days of the new month but failed to go any farther… and failed to turn their intra-month trends up. As warned last week, if Gold & Silver failed to generate daily closes above 1525.8/GCZ & 17.845/SIZ, they would likely see new declines.
They have since seen those declines but not yet signaled any acceleration lower.
In addition, it would take daily closes below 1465.0/GCZ & 16.940/SIZ to turn the intra-month trends down. As long as that does not occur, Gold & Silver could see a mid-month low and a new rally. Silver’s daily 21 MAC ushers in a 2 – 4 day window of opportunity when Silver could see a new rally.
The XAU reversed lower after failing to turn its daily trend up. That projects a drop back to the recent low. However, it would not turn negative until a daily close below 87.48/XAU.
As a result, it remains in some congestion near its low, anticipating the next 1 – 2 week low on Oct. 16 – 17, the latest phase of an 11 – 12 trading day high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Based on the recent fulfillment of its 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – and the weekly trend structure* – the XAU is in the prime position for a brief spike low and reversal higher in the coming week. (*The XAU has now twice neutralized its weekly uptrend but would not turn it down until a weekly close below 87.48/XAU.)”
Gold provides powerful confirming signal to late-Aug./early-Sept. ‘19 peaks – turning its weekly trend down. That signal is a lagging/confirming one that usually triggers a multi-week (2 – 3 week) reactive bounce followed by a new leg down – a decline to lower lows.
What Does Weekly Trend Signal Bode for Nov./Dec. 2019?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.