Gold Trading: XAU Holds Extreme Support; Portends Rally into ~Jan 3 – 5.
12/18/21 Weekly Re-Lay – Gold & Silver both rallied sharply after getting ‘bearish’ Fed news out of the way at the same time price and time indicators projected an intermediate bottom. Both matched the magnitude of their respective Sept ’21 sell-offs – powerfully confirming the ~7-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Nov 15 – 19 peaks. They also spent the same time (~4 weeks) correcting. Gold & Silver tested and held pivotal support near 1760/GCG and ~21.50/SIH, corroborating that outlook.
The Nov 15 – 19 highs continue to project a future multi-week high for Jan 3 – 7, ’22 – fulfilling a ~7-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression…
If a peak is set at that time, it would project a more significant top for Feb. 21 – 25, ’22 – the ensuing phase of that ~7-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That overlaps the time when a 17 – 18 month high (Aug/ Sept ’17) – high (Feb ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – high (Feb ’22) Cycle Progression recurs and should time a larger-magnitude peak.
There is another (technical) reason that Gold was/ is expected to undergo a new, potentially strong, rally from mid-Dec into early-Jan…
In late-March, Gold tested pivotal range-trading support (1680) and surged for 22 days.
In late-June, Gold tested pivotal range-trading support (1760) and surged for 16 days (and ultimately 30 days – an average of 23 days lo-high).
In early-Aug, Gold tested pivotal range-trading support (1680) and surged for 25 days.
In late-Sept, Gold tested mid-range-trading support (1720) and surged for 23 days… and ultimately for 48 days in two phases (2 xs 24 days).
In Dec. ’21, Gold is expected to surge for ~3-weeks (22 – 25 days) into cycle highs on Jan 3 – 7… Silver remains in a ~4-month consolidation pattern and just retested its low (and decisive multi-year support – see Nov ’21 INSIIDE Track). Both Gold & Silver triggered outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals – reinforcing the outlook into early-Jan ’22.
Gold & Silver spiked down into mid-month – testing and holding pivotal support at ~1760/GCG & ~21.50/SIH. That is the ideal intra-month pattern for the expected rally, since it now sets the stage for Intra-month V Reversals higher (high at start of month, low mid-month, higher high at month-end) and some carry-over buying into early-Jan.
Gold held its weekly 21 & 40 Low MACs as both averages are turning back up. Gold did not have quite enough time to complete the expected 3 – 5 day surge to ~1826/GCG – since it waited until mid-week and mid-month to bottom – but should test that short-term target in the coming days.
It is now likely to spike up to ~1836/GCG as part of that initial rally… Silver is on track for an initial surge to ~23.50/SIH.
The XAU & HUI corrected toward their late-Sept lows after rallying into cycle highs (mid-Nov) and peaking right at 3 – 4-month resistance, the levels of their late-July/early-Aug highs in mid-Nov. They spiked down into mid-month and to monthly support levels with the XAU also attacking its monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Dec ’21) at 117.13.
Since it simultaneously held monthly support (118.42 – 121.80/XAU), these indexes are in the prime position for a surge into month-end and into early-Jan (as part of a larger, overall advance). They closed the week above key levels (123.16/ XAU & 240.13/HUI) – maintaining a positive weekly trend structure. If they can now rally above, and close above, 133.58/XAU & 260.34/HUI (Dec 1 highs) – they would complete Intra-month V Reversals higher and project follow-through upside.”
Gold & Silver surged from multi-month cycle lows in late-Sept (weekly, monthly & yearly cycle low convergence) into Nov 15 – 19 – when daily & weekly cycles peaked while projecting future highs for Jan 3 – 5 and then a higher high for Feb 21 – 25 ‘22. In the interim, Gold should bottom near pivotal support at ~1760/GC. The next intermediate high is expected in the opening days of Jan ‘22. A precise 7-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression peaks on Jan 3 – 5, ’22 whereas a corresponding 48-day low-high-(high) Cycle Progression projects a peak on ~Jan 3 (and then a higher high on ~Feb. 21).
What Would Jan 3 – 5 Peak Project for 1Q ’22?
Are Gold & Silver Poised for Larger Advances??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.