Gold Turns Intra-Year Trend Down, Reinforcing March ’22 Cycle Peak.
07/09/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver dropped to new lows after failing to generate any signs of a bottom…
Gold & Silver continue to decline following their June 3 highs, peaks that were set during the latest phases of corresponding ~6-week & ~12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. They were unable to produce any signs of bottoming in late June and then signaled an additional decline before a bottom could take hold.
Since initially bottoming in mid-May and rebounding into early-June, Gold had remained neutral… their daily 21 MAC action began to turn negative in the final days of June. That ultimately spurred an additional sell-off with both metals dropping for the first three days of the new month. However, they would not turn their new intra-month trends down – and project any additional downside – until daily closes below 1730.7/GCQ & 18.70/SIU…
The overall outlook for 2022 has not changed. Gold & Silver were forecast to set a pair of multi-month peaks in 2022 – the first in late-Feb/early-Mar and the second in Aug/Sept ‘22 (2-year cycle from Aug ’20 peak, related ~2-year low-high-high Cycle Progression, latest phase of ~6-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver – that portends an equally significant peak in Mar ’23)… most factors are arguing for lower peaks in Aug/Sept ’22.
That is reinforced by the intra-year trend just turning down in Gold, corroborating what Silver signaled in the first half of May ’22. The monthly close and monthly trend, however, would need to corroborate this (with a July 31 close below 1793.5/GCZ).
Recent action has also corroborated the outlook (in sync with the 90/10 Rule of Cycles) that the majority of any rally into Aug/Sept ’22 would likely occur in the final weeks leading into that time frame. Just as it did in Feb ’22, this also helps identify the most likely time for any sort of geopolitical or economic surprise…
With a fairly clear 5-wave sequence to the downside (from the multi-month cycle peak in early-March), the most important level of intermediate and wave resistance over the next 1 – 2 months would be the June ’22 highs at 1882.5/GCQ & 22.655/SIU. During the recent ~4-month decline, those peaks represented the wave ‘4’ rebound highs in both metals. As a result, they are considered ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ resistance.
Gold & Silver broke below a ~2-month period of volatile consolidation after maintaining a neutral trend through most of June. It could never trigger a positive signal…
The XAU & HUI showed more weakness, selling off to new lows (lowest levels since 2Q ’20) and reinforcing the significance of their April ’22 peaks – the latest phases of both ~10-month & ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high Cycle Progressions.
The April ’22 high was the 7th in that 21 – 23-week sequence and was 23 weeks from its Nov ’21 high, which was 23 weeks from May ’21 peak. Another peak is likely in mid-to-late-Sept ’22…
The XAU nearly reached its intra-year HHL objective (171.43 High – 137.40 High = 103.37/ XAU HHL objective) – where a bottom is more likely. This spike down has fulfilled the monthly trend in the HUI, which was down and turned neutral twice (but could not reverse up) during the rally into April ’22. It has also nearly matched the duration (~2 years) of the 2016 – 2018 HUI decline.
Platinum & Palladium are recovering but both remain well below cycle highs in early-March ‘22. Palladium has confirmed a bottom – set while holding support near 1800/PA. That was/is expected to spur a rally into Sept ’22.
Copper continues to plunge after fulfilling myriad weekly & monthly cycles in early-Mar ’22 and projecting a 3 – 6 month decline. It set a secondary high in early-June and has fulfilled projections for a spike to/below ~3.500/HG. Some congestion and a bounce to ~4.000/HG could follow.”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes reinforcing multi-month cycles that peaked in late-Feb/early-Mar ‘22. Multiple signals (weekly trend remaining down, intra-year trend turning negative) are reinforcing signs of weakness and corroborating 2Q ’22 analysis for Gold drop back to ~1680/GC (see 5/11/22 issue of The Bridge as well as related publications) as part of multi-year wave structure.
What Would Retest of ~1680/GC Mean for Gold?
How Does Gold/Silver Action Reinforce March ’22 Cycle Highs… and 2021/22 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.