Gold & XAU Projecting Aug. 26 – 28 Peaks; Ubiquitous Cycle in Gold Returns into Focus… Could a Sharp, September Sell-off Ensue??
08/24/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold, Silver & the XAU remain in congestion but are likely to spike to new highs…
Gold & Silver remain in powerful uptrends and that is the most important facet of the overall analysis. On a 1 – 2 year basis, they remain in the midst of a projected ~2-year bull market – from 3Q ’18 into 4Q ’20.
They set new 1 – 2 week peaks in mid-Aug. and then pulled back to their ascending daily 21 High MACs while failing to even neutralize their daily uptrends. They needed daily closes below 1489.0/GCZ & 16.680/SIU to show the first hint of anything more than a 1 – 2 week top.
That did not materialize.
So, the prevailing uptrends remain intact and should be respected… Since 2Q ’19, the prevailing cycles were projecting another strong rally into 3Q ’19 – with Silver & the XAU arguing for that advance to stretch into Aug. ’19. That remained the case.
At the same time, Silver had reinforced its 14-week & 28-week cycles with its late-May low – projecting future focus to late-Aug./early-Sept. when those cycles (or midpoints) would recur…
This has accelerated the latest move, setting the stage for a likely peak in late-Aug. that could involve a test of 18.00 – 18.50/SI.
If a peak is set in the coming week, it would occur during the third week after metals surged to attack their weekly LHR levels – a signal that usually precedes a 1 – 2 month peak by 1 – 3 weeks. So, it would still fulfill that indicator.
It would also maintain the potential for metals to peak in Aug. ’19 – in line with monthly cycles. In the case of Gold, a high in the coming week would be a more precise 27-week low (Aug. ’18) – high (Feb. ’19) – high (Aug. 26 – 30, ’19) Cycle Progression. That is the latest phase of a 27 – 29 week cycle that has governed Gold since its late-2015 bottom.
A peak in the coming week would also reinforce the outlook for a future peak in ~March 2020 – which would now also represent a ~27-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
To reiterate again, Gold & Silver remain in powerful uptrends until daily closes below 1489.0/GCZ & 16.680/SIU…
The XAU corrected after initially peaking on Aug. 6 – 9 – the latest phase of an 18 – 21 day low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. The next phase is on Aug. 26 – 28 and should produce another multi-week peak.
The XAU spiked lower to begin the week, testing multiple levels of support and holding. That came in the week after it dropped to its weekly HLS and held (HLS was 91.10 on Aug. 12 – 16; low was 91.11/XAU) as it neutralized its daily uptrend multiple times… but was never able to turn it down.
The daily trend pattern projects (at least) a spike to new highs. That should be seen in the coming days. If/when a top is signaled, the XAU would be expected to correct into Sept. ’19 – in line with monthly and annual cycles. A corroborating 18 – 19 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression recurs on Sept. 23 – Oct. 4.”
Precious metals surge as stocks are completing ‘August 2019 Plunge Cycles’ – projected to spur sharp equity sell-off into late-Aug. ’19 (as precious metals rallied on a ‘flight to quality’ surge). Uncanny 27 – 29 Week Cycle (and web of related cycles) could time ANOTHER decisive turning point in Gold!
1525 – 1540.0/GC, 18.50/SI & 100.60/XAU upside objectives reached! Little upside potential remains.
What Now?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.