Gold Uptrend Poised to Accelerate; Break Above 1360 Would Project Surge to ~1445/GC. Time Between Successive Rallies Expected to Shorten.
Gold Uptrend Poised to Accelerate; Break Above 1360 Would Project Surge to ~1445/GC. Time Between Successive Rallies Expected to Shorten.
06/15/19 Weekly Re-Lay: “Gold & Silver surged into mid-month and to/above monthly resistance levels without ever turning their intra-month trends up. Gold spiked to its highest level since May ’18…
On a 2 – 3 month time horizon, Gold triggered a monthly 2 Close Reversal higher in May – confirming its late-April/early-May buy signal and projecting 1 – 3 months of upside follow-through. It has now neutralized its weekly downtrend multiple times, requiring a weekly close above 1352.7/GCQ to reverse that trend back up.
That needs to occur in order to extend this rally beyond June (the minimum for the 17 – 18 month high – high cycle) and stretch this advance into July (or even August) 2019.
Before expounding on the outlook for 3Q/4Q ‘19, it is important to set the stage with what has been projected and expected for 1Q & 2Q ‘19. That was best described in the Dec. ’18 INSIIDE Track:
In late-Jan. ’18, Gold fulfilled 27 – 29 week and 55 – 59 week cycles that projected a future peak for March 2019 with an intervening phase of the 27 – 29 week cycle arriving in August 2018. Gold sold off into that (Aug. ‘18) cycle – also the midpoint of the 55 – 59 week cycle – and set a multi-month low.
The primary upside target for 2019/2020 is at 1410 – 1445/GC, where multiple ’rally = rally’ projections intersect the 4th wave of lesser degree resistance (from the 2011 – 2015 decline). These wave/price targets do NOT incorporate time, so other indicators need to blend the two.
One other consistent cycle in Gold is worth noting. It is a 17 – 18 month high-high cycle that has timed five successive highs (beginning with the secondary peak in Feb. ‘12) – most recently the July ‘16 & Jan, ‘18 highs – and projects another in June/July ‘19.
Reinforcing the potential for metals (Gold, Silver, Copper, XAU) to go through a bottoming phase in Aug. – Nov. 2018, and then enter the early stages of a new advance, Silver retested its lows in Nov. and fulfilled multiple weekly/monthly cycles as well as its weekly trend pattern.
It did that at the same time the XAU was projecting a secondary low (~Nov. 13) and during the same week when Gold set a higher/secondary low while fulfilling a 12 – 13 week/~90-degree high-low-low-low-low Cycle Progression (that could spur an overall 12 – 13 week rally into early-Feb.).
One of the most important, and most consistent, cycles is one that was discussed repeatedly in late-2017 – …an approximate 9.5-month, or 39 – 41-week, cycle in Silver… After producing four successive highs (10/15, 7/16, 4/17 & 1/18), the Cycle Progression projected a subsequent low for Nov. 5 – 19, 2018.”
Gold bottomed in Aug. ’18 – in precise sync with that 27 – 29 week cycle – and then surged into late-Feb. ’19, the ensuing phase of that same cycle and the latest phase of the overriding 55 – 59 week cycle (several corroborating cycles honed that projected high to Feb. 19 – 22, when metals all peaked).
In between, it set a secondary low as Silver was diverging and setting a primary low – in Nov. ’18. Gold has now initially (and minimally) fulfilled analysis for a subsequent high in June/July ’19.
However, there is a VERY important context related to both the late-Feb. ’19 and June/July ’19 cycle highs. It has been discussed repeatedly and was reiterated in the Feb. ’19 INSIIDE Track, when discussing an impending 1Q ’19 peak and an ensuing peak for June/July ’19:
This is the most important factor to keep in mind. When a trader is assessing cycle highs in a developing downtrend, each subsequent high could hold for 3 – 6 months or even 3 – 6 years (depending on the magnitude of that downtrend).
That is what a downtrend is – an ongoing series of descending highs (and lows). So, the first couple highs might not be revisited for many years to follow.
In stark contrast, an uptrend is a series of ascending highs (and lows), each one eventually giving way to a higher one. So, each subsequent high – as that uptrend is picking up momentum – will be exceeded in shorter and shorter periods of time.
Since Gold is perceived to be in a multi-year uptrend (from its late-2015 low), and is expected to still make it to higher highs, each subsequent cycle high is likely to hold for briefer and briefer periods of time. That is reinforced by price action…
Gold keeps bumping up against the same level of resistance – chipping away at its strength. Since July ’16, Gold has tested/spiked above 1360.0/GC in Aug. ’16, Sept. ’17, Jan. – Apr. ’18 and now in June ’19. A resistance level that is tested that repeatedly is usually broken.
Gold has another convergence of cycle highs in Dec. ‘19/Jan. ’20 – when the next important peak is most likely…
The XAU provided powerful validation to its May 22 low, turning its weekly trend up and confirming a multi-month bottom. It is still expected to extend this advance into June 24 – 28 and perpetuate an 18-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (part of a larger 18 – 20-week Cycle Sequence dating back to Aug. 2016).
However, some intervening consolidation could be seen in the coming days.”
Gold sets new 12-month high; nearing time for breakout above 1360/GC. 3 – 6 month buy signal (in late-April/early-May… near 1270.0/GC) & May 31 2CR signal project increasing gains. Gold/Silver Index (XAU) reinforcing forecast for overall surge into July/August ‘19 and ideally above 90.00. Silver is steadily turning positive.
How High Could Gold & Silver Reach by/in July/August?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.