Gold v Gold Stocks Divergence

Gold v Gold Stocks Divergence
XAU & HUI Remain Weak…
Project Lower Lows in Nov.

 

11/11/17 Weekly Re-Lay:

“Gold & Silver remain neutral on a 1 – 2 month basis while negative on a 2 – 4 week basis.  The weekly trend patterns are still arguing for a rally back to the September highs, but have entered a vulnerable period.  Silver spiked up to weekly and monthly resistance & immediately reversed lower…

The XAU is similar (though on a relatively weaker basis) and bounced enough to set new intra-month highs but could not close high enough to turn the intra-month trend up.  That has been expected to spur additional spike lows in the month of November.

It remains in a weekly downtrend (in contrast to Gold & Silver) and remains in a weekly 21 MAC down trend.  That corroborated the 3 – 6 month outlook for the next multi-month low to take hold in Nov. 2017 – when monthly cycles converge.

That topic has been discussed throughout 2017 & includes an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression (Nov./Dec. 2017 low) that corroborates the monthly downtrend in the XAU (another contrast to Gold & Silver, which have not been in monthly downtrends since late-2015).

On an intermediate price basis, focus remains on a combination of multiple factors (monthly HLS, previous low, weekly trend, wave targets, potential monthly LLS, etc.) – all projecting a drop to 77.50 – 78.50/XAU.  November’s monthly support & Raw SPS corroborate that.

In the coming week, there are new factors reinforcing this expectation.  The weekly HLS (extreme downside target) is at 78.30/XAU while the weekly 21 Low MARC is at 78.66/XAU.”

 

Gold & Silver continue to show signs of building a base with the Oct. 27 low spurring what should have been a new 2 – 4 week rally.  At the same time, the XAU remains weak & continues to project a drop to 77.50 – 78.50 before a low becomes more feasible.  A 1 – 2 week low was/is likely around Nov. 10 but could is likely to eventually give way to lower lows in Gold stocks.

 

See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.