Gold ‘Vulnerable’ Leading into May 14 – 18 Cycles.
Gold ‘Vulnerable’ Leading into May 14 – 18 Cycles.
04/28/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver remain mired in multi-month periods of congestion with Gold still trading in the upper 20% of its 4+-year trading range. That remains a bullish factor for the longer-term trend.
On an intra-year basis, however, Gold has dropped back down to the bottom 20% of its 4-month trading range. That is not very positive for the intermediate trend…
Meanwhile, Silver dropped back to its weekly 21 Low MARC and weekly 21 Low MAC after surging into April 18…
One of the growing uncertainties, after Gold surged back to its 1 – 2 year resistance (~1370 – 1377/GC) and held, is what to expect from dual weekly cycles that converge on May 14 – 18.
That is the latest phase of both an 11-week & 22-week low-low cycle with ascending lows – particularly that of the 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression – arguing in favor of an inversion high on May 14 – 18. Until the past 10 days, that remained the most likely scenario.
However, recent action is casting some doubt on that…
1 – 3 month traders should have exited Gold positions… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU has pulled back after fulfilling analysis for a rally into April 16 – 18 – the latest phase of a 21 – 24 day/14 – 16 trading day Cycle Progression that recently timed the March 26 high. The next phase comes into play on May 8 – 11.
During the past week, the XAU turned its daily trend down – escalating this correction while removing the potential for a retest of recent highs in late-April. As a result, it stands poised to fulfill a 19 – 20 day low (Feb. 9) – low (Mar. 1) – low (Mar. 20) – low (Apr. 9) – low (April 27/30) Cycle Progression…
The XAU did pull back right to 1 – 2 week support at 82.07/XAU, which coincided with the weekly HLS (82.17) and weekly 21 High MARC (81.87/XAU). By holding its weekly HLS, the XAU projects an intermediate low in the coming weeks.
A low in the next 1 – 2 weeks would also perpetuate a larger-degree ~5-month high (early-Sept. ’16) – high (early-Feb. ’17) – low (early-July ’17) – low (early-Dec. ’17) – low (early-May ’18) Cycle Progression…
Gold & Silver turned their daily trends down, escalating this sell-off while confirming the April 18 cycle high. This could spur a spike low in the opening days of May.”
Gold, Silver & XAU have sold off since surging into the Date of Aggression (April 19) – fulfilling technical indicators & cycles that projected a near-term surge into April 18. At that time, Gold entered a vulnerable period and is now being joined by Silver, with focus remaining on May 14 – 18 – a convergence of weekly cycles in Gold. In the interim, daily cycles in the XAU project a high on May 8 – 11. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.