Gold & Silver Reinforcing Early-March Cycle Highs; Weekly Trends Reversing Down.
05/11/22 The Bridge – Gold, Silver, Cycles, Waves & Ranges – “Gold triggered multiple signs of a ‘IV’ wave low in 2021, also projecting a rally back to (at least) the Aug ‘20 peak near 2080/GC.
That would complete an overall 5-wave structure from the late-2015 bottom and usher in a larger corrective period.
The timing and price levels for the ensuing ‘V’ wave peak were the primary factors that still needed to be determined.
At the very least (soonest), the ‘V’ wave peak should arrive in Feb/Mar ‘22.
At the very least, the ‘V’ wave peak should occur right at or slightly above 2080/GC (wave III peak).
On March 8, ‘22, Gold fulfilled both of those minimum criteria – peaking at 2082/GCM. (See updated version of this Oct ‘21 chart on page 3.)…
From a purely Elliott Wave perspective, that wave ‘V’ peak would not be confirmed as the wave ‘V’ peak until Gold drops below the ‘IV’ wave low (what is also considered the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ if a new down-trending wave structure is unfolding) – near 1680/GC… other indicators are used to provide early-warning signs of a multi-month peak.
Range Trading
Before getting to them, there was/is another factor that favored the March 8 peak near 2080/GC being a multi-month peak (at least) – Range Trading.
The charts on pages 4 – 5 are a progression of charts featured in 2021, showing how Gold had bottomed in Mar ‘21 (it would retest that low in late-Sept ‘21, but remain just above it) and continued to trade in lockstep with the ~80.0/GC ranges that have now governed Gold’s swings for a few years.
On a 1 – 2 year basis, the lower end of that overall trading range (or series of ranges) is at ~1680/GC.
That was previously resistance for the early-2020 peak (before the Covid-led but brief meltdown into 1 – 2 year cycle lows in March ‘20) and then became support during the ensuing rally.
After the Aug ‘20 peak was intact, ~1680/GC again became major support. It helped create the March (and Sept) ‘21 low.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the upper end of that overall trading range (or series of ranges) is at ~2080/GC. That is 1 – 2 year resistance (and the level that Gold would need to close above – on a weekly & monthly basis – in order to project any higher levels in the coming months or years).
At least on the initial advance – into March 8, ‘22 – that 2080/GC resistance held. It would take the weekly trends turning down, and/or the intra-year trends turning down, to confirm that high as the likely peak for all of 2022 (and potentially beyond).
Trend Signals
Silver could turn its weekly trend down (a lagging & confirming indicator that often reverses at the bottom of an initial decline) with a weekly close below 22.11/SIN. It could turn its intra-year trend down with a weekly close below 22.02/SIN.
As a result, the May 13 weekly close is critical!
With Gold & Silver moving progressively lower from their early-March cycle peak, they are increasing the probabilities that [reserved for subscribers].”
Gold reached major upside targets and wave objectives in early-March ’22 (near 2080/GC) – precisely fulfilling time and price targets for a wave ‘5’ of ‘V’ major peak. At the very least, the highs near 2080/GC should spur an overall correction back to ~1680/GC – a pivotal and decisive level of 1 – 2 year support for Gold. Silver is poised to turn weekly trend down and would reinforce significance of early-March ’22 cycle highs. The May 13 weekly close could confirm this negative signal.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.