Gold, XAU & Platinum Project Higher Highs in March ’20; Confirming 2020/21 Outlook.
01/30/20 INSIIDE Track: “Gold & Silver surged into early-Jan. – fulfilling a collection of weekly cycles and ushering in a 1 – 2 month peak. That may have completed the wave ’5’ advance that the Nov. ’19 low projected. (That would not be confirmed, however, until at least the daily trend turns down… and more likely not until the weekly trend turns down.)
The Nov. low fulfilled successive 10-week corrections – in Feb. – April ’19 and Aug. – Nov. ’19 (the ’2’ and ’4’ waves of an overall 5-wave advance) and ushered in the wave ’5’ advance.
Gold accelerated higher in Jan. ‘20 – validating the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (see previous analysis on page 7) – and peaked in sync with multiple factors while fulfilling an 18-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a 36-week low (Dec. 11 – 15, ‘17) – low (Aug. 18 – 22, ‘18) – low (Apr. 22 – 26, ‘19) – high (Jan. 6 – 10, ’20) Cycle Progression.
In late-Dec. & early-Jan., weekly LHRs also argued for an intermediate peak at that time with January’s monthly LHR at 1604.9/GCG. Gold attacked that monthly extreme and peaked on Jan. 8. How does that impact the 2020 outlook?
2020 possesses at least three key cycles related to potential highs in Gold and related metals/indexes. The first was/is in Jan. ’20 and is primarily the convergence of weekly cycles – on Jan. 6 – 10, 2020.
The second is in March/April ’20 and is linked to a greater proportion of monthly cycles (with corresponding weekly cycles – like a 54 – 59 week cycle – used to hone the focus).
The third is in Sept./Oct. ’20 and should also time a multi-month high.
As long as its weekly trend does not reverse down, Gold should reach higher highs in March/April ’20. The action leading into and out of that cycle should shed some light on the ensuing cycle.
On a broader basis, Gold and Silver are still expected to set higher highs in 2020 and potentially 2021…
The XAU surged into early-Jan., fulfilling multiple criteria for a minimum 1 – 2 month peak. That peak led the other metals, peaking on Jan. 2 while fulfilling a 10 – 11 week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression. The XAU finally surged above its late-Aug. peak, fulfilling the weekly trend buy signal generated in mid-Oct.
Leading into this peak, the XAU attacked its weekly & monthly LHRs while fulfilling 3 – 6 month and 1 – 2 year upside targets at 107.83 – 110.00/XAU.
It’s Oct. ‘19 low (its wave ‘4’ low) and its May ‘19 low (wave ‘2’ low) helped pinpoint the latest peak. Those two corrective wave lows – 65.85 & 86.84/XAU – created a clear-cut 3 – 6 month (and wave-related) LLHprojection at 107.83/XAU.
(86.84 – 65.85 = 20.99 / 86.84 low + additional 20.99 = 107.83/XAU.)
That coincided with the primary Elliott Wave upside objective (‘5th’ wave = ‘1st’ wave magnitude, projecting a peak around 107.01/XAU) and was reinforced by weekly & monthly LHRs hit in late-Dec. and the overall ~110.0/XAU objective for this advance from Sept. ’18…
Platinum also surged into Jan. ’20 but delayed its peak until mid-Jan. Platinum had a powerful convergence of weekly cycles, led by its 17 – 19 week Cycle Progression, forecasting a rally into Jan. ’20 and a 2 – 4 week (or longer) peak at that time. While setting that peak (Jan. 15/16), Platinum reinforced another convergence of future weekly cycles in March ’20.
A peak in the first half of March ‘20 would already arrive 180 degrees (~6 months) from its early-Sept. ’19 peak and 270 degrees (~9 months) from its early-June ’19 low. It would now also fulfill a ~2-month/~60-degree low (mid-Nov.) – high (mid-Jan.) – (high; mid-Mar.) Cycle Progression – targeted for mid-March ’20.
As long as the weekly trends do not turn down in Gold & Platinum, they are still expected to set higher highs in March/April ’20. That is also possible in the XAU but remains a lower probability for Silver.
Palladium fulfilled timing and price projections – calling for a surge into late-Jan. ‘20 and up to 2400/PA. As stated previously, Palladium ‘could set a major peak in 1Q ‘20 (ideally in Jan. ‘20) if it reaches that range.’ That is what has just taken place, so a multi-month peak could be evolving.
Copper rallied into mid-Jan., peaking right at its descending monthly 21 High MAC… at which point it signaled an intermediate peak and reversal lower. That was expected to trigger a sharp correction but Copper has exceeded those expectations – plummeting back toward its Aug. ’19 low.
Since this prevented Copper from being able to reverse its monthly trend to up, it signals that only a 3 – 6 month bottom is intact (Aug. ‘19) and that is far less likely to graduate to a 6 – 12 month bottom. That also failed to confirm that a larger-degree advance was underway, so new lows are now likely.”
Gold, Platinum, & XAU are all expected to set higher highs in March 2020 – part of the overall outlook for 2020/2021 (see related Special Reports and The Bridge publications). Biggest surprises could come in 2Q 2020!
Why are all these metals pointing higher into March 2020?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.