Gold & Silver Project Declines into Mid/Late-Aug ‘23; XAU Drop to ~110.0 Likely.
06-12-23 – “Gold & Silver remain in a corrective mode, having sold off after fulfilling intermediate cycles that projected a decisive peak on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) and ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions in Gold & Silver, respectively, while testing upside price targets at 2060 – 2080/GC & 26.50/SI.
Following that, both sold off with Silver reversing its weekly trend down while testing and holding its monthly HLS (23.36/SIN). While that has broader ramifications for June & July ’23, it was initial support that was expected to spur a bounce. Silver is fulfilling that and could spike above 25.00/SIN – retesting intra-year trend resistance, weekly 21 High MARC resistance and the coming week’s SPR.
Gold is a little different than Silver and has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times while testing and holding multiple levels of 1 – 2 month support (including May’s monthly support, stretching down to 1955.1/GCQ). It would not turn that weekly trend down until a weekly close below 1954/GCQ…
Gold has been trading inside its weekly 21 MAC as that channel is flattening… a more bearish scenario could unfold if Gold drops below 1950/GCQ in the coming week(s) (particularly if it first spikes above 1990/GCQ).
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is most likely in late-Aug ’23… A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 – particularly if it arrives without Gold exceeding its early-May ’23 peak – would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (since Gold set a double bottom in late-Sept – early-Nov ’22, so two lows could be used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle sequence, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
The XAU & HUI are weak and were expected to experience an intermediate decline from early-May into late-May/early-June ’23. They did that and then rebounded but could only neutralize their daily downtrends while testing (and reversing lower from) their declining daily 21 Low MACs. That is likely to spur a new decline in the coming week(s).
On June 9, the XAU & HUI neutralized their weekly uptrends for the fourth consecutive week. They would need to give weekly closes below 120.75/XAU & 238.08/HUI to turn their weekly trends down. Until then, they are in neutral territory. However, there are other factors that continue to argue that a multi-month peak is intact…
In mid-April (similar to 2022), they set highs while matching the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) and peaked ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 highs. The XAU also matched the price magnitude of its prior advance, reinforcing the likelihood for at least a 1 – 2 month peak.
Ultimately, these indexes could drop back to their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI.”
Gold & Silver initially sold off after fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce. Multi-month cycles next bottom in mid-to-late-Aug ’23.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.]
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of multi-month corrections, targeted to attack ~110/XAU & ~210/HUI before bottoming. Aug 14 – 25, ’23 = time for ultimate (multi-month) low.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.