Gold & Silver, Dollar & Euro Focused on Late-Aug ’23 Cycles; XAU & HUI Concur.
06-19-23 – “The Dollar Index quickly fulfilled its potential for a drop to 101.50 – 101.93/DXU leading into mid-month… Looking out into 3Q ‘23, the Dollar is building further cycle synergy in Aug ’23, with a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression converging on Aug 14 – 25, ’23…
The Euro is the inverse and… has coinciding cycles with the Dollar Index in Aug ’23, most noteworthy when a 45 – 46-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 7 – 18, ‘23. That would also complete a 50% retracement in time (30 wks up, 15 wks dn)…
Gold & Silver remain in a 1 – 2 month (or longer) corrective mode, having sold off after fulfilling multi-month cycles that projected a decisive peak on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) and ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions in Gold & Silver, respectively, while testing upside price targets at 2060 – 2080/GC & 26.50/SI.
Following that, both declined with Silver reversing its weekly trend down while testing and holding its monthly HLS (23.36/SIN). That was initial support that was expected to spur a bounce (ultimately followed by another decline).
Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times while testing and holding multiple levels of 1 – 2 month support, including its weekly 21 Low MAC near 1945/GCQ. It would not turn its weekly trend down until a weekly close below 1954/GCQ.
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is most likely in late-Aug ’23… with a lot of volatility expected in between.
A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (Gold set a double bottom in late-Sept – early-Nov ’22, so two lows can be used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle sequence, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression…
The XAU & HUI are weak but are holding support after fulfilling analysis for an initial decline from early-May into late-May/early-June ’23. They have neutralized their weekly uptrends in 5 consecutive weeks but would not turn them down until weekly closes below 120.75/XAU & 238.08/HUI.
Ultimately, these indexes could drop back to their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI. The ideal scenario for that would be a ‘b’ wave bounce into late-June/early-July (the ‘a’ wave was the April/May ’23 decline) followed by a ‘c’ wave decline in July/Aug ‘23.
In mid-April (similar to 2022), they set highs while matching the duration of their 2021/22 rallies (~28 weeks) and peaked ~12 months/~360 degrees from their mid-April ’22 highs. The XAU also matched the price magnitude of its prior advance, reinforcing the likelihood for at least a 1 – 2 month peak.”
Gold & Silver initially sold off after fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce. Multi-month cycles next bottom in mid-to-late-Aug ’23.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it, beginning in late-Aug ‘23! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.]
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of multi-month corrections, targeted to attack ~110/XAU & ~210/HUI before bottoming. Aug 14 – 25, ’23 = likely time for ultimate (multi-month) low.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.