Golden Parachute; Gold & Silver Retreat Before 2025 Rallies; Support in Focus.
11-06-24 – The Golden Parachute – “Gold & Silver are closely adhering to the overall outlook, completing ~12-month rallies into late-October 2024 – when multi-month & multi-week cycles projected an important peak. That was/is expected to spur an initial drop into November 8/11th and potentially a larger, overall decline.
While Gold & Silver are selling off, Bitcoin is likely completing a multi-month rally from its July/August 2024 cycle low and a multi-week rally from its early-October cycle lows and buy signals…
Perhaps the most convincing analysis/fundamental connection is the outlook for the US Dollar to decline in 2025 and beyond (after a potential intervening peak in January 2025… right when the executive ‘changing of the guard’ occurs) – a trend, if it comes to fruition, that has been consistently linked to Republican administrations for the past 40+ years.
That will likely coincide with the next significant advance in Gold & Silver – ultimately leading into October/November 2025, when the next 3 – 6 month peak is expected.
In the interim, Gold & Silver could have a ‘soft landing’ as they parachute down from the lofty levels of recent weeks. The weekly trends, weekly extremes, and monthly extremes could play key roles with Gold capable of dropping to ~2530/GCZ and Silver to 27.50 – 28.00/SIZ before bottoming.
The coming weeks promise to be volatile with some markets completing counter-trend reactions while others complete larger overall trends. That begins with…
The Dollar Index has rallied – supported by rising interest rates – after fulfilling the outlook for a multi-week bottom on Sept 27/30. On balance, that is still likely to extend into January ’25.
This comes after it fulfilled a major, ~3.25-Year (38 – 41-month) low-low cycle and a more precise ~40-month low (Jan ’18) – low (May ’21) – (low; Sept 2024) Cycle Progression. (While a long way off, the next phase – in early-2028 – would also fulfill 7, 10, 17 & 20-Year low-low cycles.)
The Dollar Index just surged back to its April & June ’24 highs – on the results of the US Election – and would need to close above them (on a daily & weekly basis) to project any additional upside at this time…
Gold & Silver are confirming signs of multi-week or multi-month tops after attacking critical upside targets in late-October – the ideal time for a multi-week or multi-month high.
From a price perspective, Silver led this topping phase, attacking its weekly LHR on Oct 18th, increasing the likelihood for a 1 – 2 month peak in the subsequent week(s). In the following week, it spiked up to monthly resistance (33.96 – 34.55/SIZ) and peaked while fulfilling the objective for a wave ‘v’ of ‘5’ of ‘III’ wave peak.
Silver peaked on October 22nd – along with related cycles in the XAU Index – while Gold waited another week to fulfill its own cycles. Its late-October ’24 peak fulfilled the latest phase of an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.
Gold stretched its intraday/intra-week high into October 30th, fulfilling a ~5-week/34 – 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30) Cycle Progression and then turned down – validating all this ongoing analysis and projecting an initial drop into Nov 8/11th. Initial support is near 2620/GCZ & 30.50/SIZ.
The XAU & HUI have dropped sharply after fulfilling upside projections in price and time as the XAU surged into a synergistic convergence of geometric cycle highs on October 21/22nd and topped while fulfilling an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024 Cycle Progression as well as the following:
- ~4-month low (Feb 13) – low (June 17) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month low (Feb 13) – low (April 16) – low (June 17) – high (Aug 20) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~3-month high (Jan 12) – high (April 12) – high (July 16/17) – (high; October 16 – 22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
That also fulfilled a similar ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression as in Gold. They quickly confirmed those peaks, increasing the likelihood for a plunge back to their early-August ’24 lows. That dovetails with the monthly HLS (extreme downside target for Nov ’24) at 135.63/XAU.”
Gold, Silver & XAU fulfilled projections for a surge into late-October ’24 – when a multi-month peak was/is projected to take hold and trigger a multi-month corrective phase. That could produce lows, at least in Gold, before the end of 2024. The late-October high reinforces future cycle highs in late-Jan/early-Feb, late-April/early-May & late-Oct/early-Nov ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
Gold & Silver (as well as US Dollar) have fulfilled the latest phases of their 2022 – 2027 outlooks with Gold & Silver (and XAU) surging into late-October ’24 and reinforcing analysis for a series of future peaks projected for 2025 & 2026… as Gold’s bull market continues. The XAU is similar and portends a drop below 136.00/XAU – where multi-month support aligns – as part/all of a developing correction.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
INSIIDE Track Trading – Subscriptions Order Page
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.