IDX, DJTA & Russell 2K Confirming Multi-Month Peak; NQ-100 Portends Add’l High.
11/30/24 – “Stock Indices have further validated the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks. While that could time a peak at any point in 2024, most indications were signaling it would wait until 4Q 2024. (The first chance was in October ‘24 but was not confirmed – with several stocks peaking as the Indexes failed to reverse.)
If/when that is fulfilled, the next question would be what it would take to signal a top… and when a substantial decline would become more likely. Those factors are [reserved for subscribers]…
The subsequent decline – based solely on that 17-Year Cycle (other factors will be incorporated) – is expected to last [reserved for subscribers]… and lead to at least a 20% decline… potentially as much as 50%. To reiterate, that is JUST ONE factor in the midst of many – so it should not be overweighted in significance.
Of the last 3 occurrences, 2 of them lasted 1.5 – 2-years and suffered ~50% declines. The 3rd one (1990) lasted ~3 months and only dropped ~20%. So, there is a wide variance with this broad cycle. That is why the synergy of corroborating cycles and indicators is vital to validate this potential.
Two of the primary things the 17-Year Cycle has historically timed – with uncanny consistency – are stock market peaks (and subsequent sell-offs of a higher magnitude) and Middle East conflict.
The latter of those is being fulfilled with uncanny precision… while the former remains to be seen as stocks have not yet signaled a peak.
Range Trading Redux (Déjà vu?)
When it comes to validating and acting on these cycles, price action is always the primary focus. The past month brought some key validations to the broader outlook – reinforcing the thinking that most upside objectives are being fulfilled as lagging indexes projected October/November rallies.
One of them arrived in the index that led the Nov ‘21 peak and reversal lower (and subsequent 2022 sell-off)… and helped pinpoint the late-2023/early-2024 low and reversal higher – the Russell 2000.
In November 2021, Weekly Re-Lay publications updated the ongoing range-trading phenomenon in the Russell 2000 and explained how the attainment of major price and timing upside objectives were expected to usher in a 1 – 2 year peak (in Nov ‘21 and near 2460/QR) and a 6 – 12 month decline as part of that process.
Included with that analysis was a chart similar to the one included above, illustrating why ~2460/QR was decisive resistance projected to usher in that peak after fulfilling a myriad of upside price targets, wave objectives and range-trading targets (see Nov 2021 Weekly Re-Lays and December ‘21 INSIIDE Track for related analysis and charts).
The Russell 2000 peaked in perfect lockstep with that convergence of targets and cycle highs and began a ~2-year decline that did not set its lowest weekly close until late-October 2023… as it was again testing the levels of the 2018 & 2020 peaks – multi-year levels of ‘resistance turned into support’.
That 2023 low ushered in a ~year-long advance – a 50% rebound in time – that brought the Russell right back to the same major upside target at ~2460/QR… three years from its previous peak.
The rally into November 2024 perpetuated this range-trading sequence and finally had the Russell 2000 attacking that objective at the same time a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles converged in late-Nov…. that fulfills a number of upside objectives and cycles…
2025/2026
There are many related 17-Year Cycles that are entering the volatile and unsettling transition phase. They include US recessions, real estate extremes, US Dollar extremes, earth disturbance swarms, solar-related phenomenon, etc.
It may take substantial time for these to reach fruition but they are all expected to create a very challenging period from late-2024 into late-2026. The topping phase needs to unfold first… then the ‘dominos’ should start to fall.
6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year traders and investors can [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes fulfilled the October/November outlook and rallied into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 likely set decisive peaks as they attacked & held major upside range-trading targets near 3400/IDX, ~17,600 & 2460/QR. (S+P 500 & NQ-100 are distinct and have slightly higher targets.) The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities with the final weeks of 2024 representing a precarious period for stocks.
In early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was projected to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a much higher probability. The greatest synergy of those cycles – reiterated many times in our publications – was on November 22/25th and represented the ideal time for the small and midcap indexes to set pivotal peaks and usher in a sharp (initial) 3 – 4-week drop.
Stocks Positive into October 17th/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when the sharpest sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected. The first one arrives in December ‘24!
Why are S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 Projecting Declines From Nov 25, ’24 Cycle Peak?
How is Russell 2000 Range Target Signaling Déjà vu to November 2021… and Dec ‘21?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.