Interest Rates: Bond Rally/Stock Panic Imminent; July ’20 = Bond Cycle Peak
01-06-20 – “Bonds & Notes initially fulfilled analysis for a multi-month bottom in Nov. ’19 – perpetuating a ~13-month/56 – 60 week high (July ’16) – high (Sept. ’17) – low (Oct. ’18) – low (Nov. ‘19) Cycle Progression. The early-Nov. low also perpetuated a 17 – 18 week high (Jly. 2 – 6, ‘18) – low (Nov. 5 – 9, ‘18) – low (Mar. 4 – 8, ‘19) – low (Jly. 8 – 12, ‘19) – low (Nov 4 – 18, ’19) Cycle Progression.
The wave structure appears to have reinforced this. Bonds & Notes completed a likely ‘a-b-c’ correction from the late-Aug. ’19 peaks – first declining into mid-Sept. (‘a’), then rebounding into early-Oct. (‘b’) and then selling off into early-Nov. (‘c’)… with both declines being of almost exactly equal magnitude (‘c’ = ‘a’)… a textbook correction… fulfilling ongoing analysis for a multi-month low in late-2019/early-2020 followed by a rally into the next important cycle high in mid-2020 – ideally in mid-July 2020.
Bonds maintain a consistent 4-Year Cycle (since 1996) that timed peaks in June/July ‘12 and July ‘16. Prior to that, they set lows in June ‘08, May ‘04, May ‘00 (a secondary low after late-’99 events spurred a dramatic drop into Jan. ‘00) and June ‘96. That creates a textbook, 4-year low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – next peaking in mid-’20. With Bonds often reacting to stock swings, this might be giving timing clues.”
Bonds & Notes remain focused on mid-2020/July ’20 for a major, multi-year peak (and corresponding bottom in interest rates). They fulfilled analysis for a multi-month low in Nov 2019, and have entered what is perceived to be a final, wave 5 of V advance into a multi-year peak in July ’20. Longer-term cycles portend a ‘Global-Shaping Event’ (watch China) and Stock Market Panic in early-2020 (see March 2019 INSIIDE Track for details)… likely spurring this final drop in interest rates.
2020/2021 represent final, culminating years of 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles (see Nov ’19 INSIIDE Track) – timing everything from War (watch late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and transition to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture, Currency Wars… and ultimately Interest Rates!
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.