Interest Rates: Bonds Signal 4Q ’19 Sell-off; July ’20 = Major Cycle Peak
Outlook 2019/2020 – A Tale of Two Cycles
08-30-19 – Bonds & Notes rallied for the first half of their latest ~90-degree cycle after bottoming in mid-July while perpetuating a 13 – 14 week low-low-low Cycle Progression. (The next phase comes into play in late-Oct. ‘19.)
That has brought them to an annual period (late-Aug./early-Sept.) that has timed the onset of intermediate declines in each of the past four years. A peak during this time frame would perpetuate a ~360-degree ‘high-high-high’ cycle that previously timed the late-Aug. ’18 high & reversal lower.
It would also arrive 2-years from the early-Sept. ’17 peak & reversal lower, 3 years from early-Sept. ’16 – when Bonds completed a series of descending highs and then plunged – and 4 years from the late-Aug. ’15 peak and reversal lower.
To reiterate, the action of 3Q ‘19 altered what was/is expected from the next multi-month cycle low in late-2019/early-2020 (when a higher low is now expected). In the process, Bonds have reinforced the next important cycle high – expected in mid-2020 (May – July ‘20).
For more than two decades, Bonds have traced out a consistent 4-Year Cycle that most recently timed peaks in June/July ‘12 and July ‘16. Prior to that, they set lows in June ‘08, May ‘04, May ‘00 (a secondary low after late-’99 events spurred a dramatic drop into Jan. ‘00) and June ‘96. That creates a textbook, 4-year low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – next peaking in mid-’20.”
Bonds & Notes remain focused on mid-2020 (July ’20 = greatest synergy of cycles) for a major, multi-year peak… and corresponding low in interest rates. To set the stage for a final rally, they are expected to now enter a 3 – 4 month decline into late-2019… and then enter a final, wave 5 of V advance into a multi-year peak. Longer-term cycles portend a ‘Global-Shaping Event’ and Stock Market Panic in late-2019/early-2020 (see March 2019 INSIIDE Track for details)… likely spurring a final drop in interest rates.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.