Interest Rates Confirming July ’20 (4-Year) Cycle Low; Inflation Looms!
Outlook 2021: 40YC – History Rhymes?
11-28-20 – Since 2018, INSIIDE Track has described expectations for the period of 2018 – 2022 to ‘rhyme’ with a cyclically-related period in 1978 – 1982 – one phase of the uncanny 40-Year Cycle prior. Dozens of examples have been provided, many of which have pinpointed multi-month swings in the stock market (reinforced by the latest intermediate lows during the last trading day of October – in both 1980 & 2020).
Here’s another similarity… [reserved for subscribers]…
Bonds & Notes continue to corroborate the longer-term outlook for a final spike high to occur in June/July ‘20 – while perpetuating a ~4-year low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression dating back to the 1990’s (more recently timing peaks in mid-2012 and mid-2016).
Bonds & Notes could remain in their upper regions for a few months as the euphoric bullishness of recent years begins to fade. An initial wave of selling is rarely the immediate start of a new trend but rather a topping process that must unfold in order to shift sentiment over time.
They completed the ‘1’ or ‘A’ leg down (of a larger-magnitude decline), dropping from early-Aug. into early-Nov. – a ~90-degree/~3-month move in time. The early-Nov. low fulfilled a larger-magnitude geometric cycle – a ~360-degree/~1-year cycle that previously timed lows in early-Nov. during 2017, 2018 & 2019 and was projected to do the same in 2020.
They are developing a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave bounce that would ideally last 2 – 4 weeks before ushering in the potential for a second multi-month decline (‘3’ or ‘C’ wave down) that should last into 1Q ‘21.
Another resurgence of price inflation – in early-2021 – could also help change perspectives on interest rates and apply new downward pressure on Bonds.
Longer-term investors and hedgers can be liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and could have increased selling in early-Sept. A rebound to [reserved for subscribers] could spur additional selling.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes have entered a projected 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 – while fulfilling analysis for a final, wave 5 of V advance into that peak. A multitude of factors are projecting an initial surge in inflation between now and mid-2021 (the first of multiple phases).
Stocks & Silver (representing paper & commodity inflation) triggered 6 – 12 month buy signals as multi-year cycles bottomed on March 20 – 27 – with stocks projecting a new 12 – 18 month advance into May ‘21. Lumber & Natural Gas did the same. Bonds could/should begin to fall when the masses recognize that we have entered a multi-year inflationary period.
2020/2021 represent final, culminating years of 40-Year & 80-Year Cycles – timing everything from War (watch late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shift), Currency Wars… and ultimately Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022) could help magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.