“July 2024 Could be Momentous for Gold & Silver!” Bull Markets Gaining Momentum.
01-04-24 – “The ramifications of 2020’s pandemic continue to reverberate through the global economy. Even though many things appear to have ‘returned to normal’ (whatever ‘normal’ is), there are many others that keep reacting and re-reacting to the consequences of that massive global disruption.
Various inflation gauges are producing dramatically-divergent conclusions. It often depends on ’which’ inflation someone is focused on. For example, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (see chart on page 8) has been heading lower since March 2022.
In contrast, the Fed’s favorite PCE Index gained into late-2022 but has been declining – on an annual change basis for all of 2023 (United States PCE Price Index Annual Change). However, interest rates continued to rise into 3Q 2023, likely overdoing it.
Corporations have lost their pricing power. After taking advantage of the early signs of inflation and recovery, often increasing prices 15 – 25% on some goods, these corporations have hit a ceiling even as the cost of goods remains high. Significant layoffs began to emerge in the second half of 2023 and stock prices could suffer in 2024/25. Why?…
The Lag Effect…
In 3Q 2020, Jerome Powell expressed his desire for more inflation in the economy. He was basing that on present and past information… ignoring any lag effect… and skewed Fed policy accordingly. For the following 2 – 3 years, he got his wish.
Like clockwork, the overreactions began (sharp interest rate hikes) and continued well beyond their useful period… due to ignoring the lag effect. One of the most intriguing aspects of current inflation is the cost of housing/rent. And here’s where some misguided actions become apparent.
While there were multiple factors spurring the 2021 surge in real estate, the 2022/2023 surge has been governed primarily by two factors:
- Escalating interest rates and…
- Unwillingness to sell properties with ~3% loans.
The dramatic surge in inflation & interest rates stifled home builders from creating enough new supply AND discouraged home owners from selling existing properties when realizing they would be trading ~3% loans for ~7% loans in a new property.
So, while other economic activity & numbers – that would normally help spur real estate demand and support – have risen throughout 2022/23, real estate activity has been artificially constrained.
When rates get low enough to correct some of this unbalance, will consumer sentiment still be strong enough to sustain new demand (at dramatically higher prices). If not, what happens? What if a receding tide ‘lowers all boats’?
2024 Instability on Tap
Recent issues have reiterated the outlook for a strong intensification of sunspots and solar storms in late-2023 through late-2024. That was/is forecast to coincide with intensifying geophysical AND geopolitical activity. As stated last month:
“Mass psychological instability on Earth is often a reflection of underlying instability below and above the surface (tectonic & solar instability).” Major earthquakes AND volcanic eruptions of the past couple months are corroborating this.
Gold & Silver continue to trace out successive waves (of preparation) above their Sept/Oct 2022 major lows and above their early-October 2023 secondary lows.
The Sept 2022 low was expected to be a multi-year low and the recent Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low was likely the end of Gold & Silver’s wave II retracement. It fulfilled a textbook .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – as well as ~11-week high-high-(low) AND ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progressions in Silver (see previous charts).
The month of Oct ‘23 was also when the monthly AND weekly 21 MARCs were set to become a positive influence – reinforcing the synergy of cycles & technical indicators and the symbiotic relationship they possess. That was the same time of year when Gold set its lowest weekly close in 2022 – a 1-year/~360-degree cycle from its ~Oct ’22 major bottom.
That ushered in the ‘1’ of ‘III’ advance – the October ‘23 surge – that should pave the way for future rallies if/when a breakout of Gold’s triple-top occurs (the April 11, ’23 issue of The Bridge elaborated on this topic and included the wave diagram above).
The ‘2’ of ‘III’ pullback bottomed on Nov 13 – along with intermediate cycles – and ushered in the ‘3’ of ‘III’ advance. That, along with weekly 21 MAC & 21 MARC action, was projected to spur a sharp rally into early-December ‘23 with Gold targeted to spike up to 2152/GCG and peak on/around Dec. 4th.
11-30-23 – “…this rally should prompt Gold to attack/exceed its 2023 high at 2140.0/GCG. A Gold surge to ~2152/GCG would create equal-magnitude rallies from the early-Oct ’23 multi-month cycle low. If this rally extends into – and peaks on – December 4 – 8, 23, Gold would fulfill a ~31-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression from its 2022 low AND complete equal-duration rallies from the early-Oct ’23 cycle low.”
Gold & Silver did exactly that, with Gold spiking up to 2152.6/GCG and peaking on December 4th!
The early-December spike high fulfilled acceleration indicators as well as weekly & monthly LHRs. It also fulfilled key cycles while reinforcing at least one noteworthy future cycles…
Among other cycles, that early-December ‘23 peak fulfilled a 26 – 29 trading day Cycle Progression and – more significantly – a ~7-month/~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (Dec 4 – 8, ’23).
That ~7-month cycle next comes into play in July 2024 – when a higher high appears very likely (with intervening peaks also expected). That is also the next phase of an overlapping ~14-month low-low-low-low-high-high (March ‘22) – high (May ‘23) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression in Gold.
It would also fulfill an over-arching ~28-month low (July ‘17) – low (Nov ‘19) – high (March ‘22) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression. And that would – at least initially – fulfill a ~4-year high (3Q 2012) – high (3Q/July 2016) – high (3Q/Aug 2020) – (high; 3Q/July-August 2024) Cycle Progression.
So, July 2024 (and the weeks or months surrounding it) could be momentous for Gold & Silver!
On the whole, Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a series of rallies & pullbacks during the initial phases of what has been forecast to be a larger-magnitude advance.
2023 – 2025 is a pivotal time for Silver that includes a series of geometric and/or decennial cycles (10-year and 30-year intervals), all of which apply to times when Silver experienced dramatic reactions to geopolitical or fundamental events. (See the November 2023 INSIIDE Track for details.)
In addition to cyclic & technical factors, there are many fundamental factors that favor a significant rally in Silver – from late-2022 into 2025. As explained many times before, 2023 also ushered in the inflationary ‘sweet spot’ for Silver (and Gold) when the waning threat of higher interest rates would remove a significant burden from Silver pricing.
On a comparative basis, Gold & Silver are starting this (projected) multi-year advance the same way they started the 2016 – 2020 advance – paralleling the action of 2016 (when the previous wave ‘I’ & ‘II’ of a larger-magnitude advance unfolded).
In 2016, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2022/2023, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.
In 2016, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during that ~5-month sell-off.
In 2023, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during the ~5-month sell-off into early-October ‘23.
That set the stage for ‘3rd waves’ – on multiple levels to begin to take hold… with the first being an accelerated surge into early-Dec ‘23.
In 2016/2017, Gold subsequently rallied for ~9 months – into Sept 2017 – before setting a 1 – 2 year peak. The parallels could continue…
In 2023/2024, Gold is forecast to rally into July 2024 – a ~9-month advance from its Oct. ‘23 low.
On a near-term basis, Gold & Silver are retracing into January 4/5 – 3 months/~90-degrees from their October 4/5th lows and a 50% retracement of the ~2-month/~60-degree surge into December 4th. That is the ideal time for another higher low and the onset of a new intermediate advance.
That low would also occur 6-months/~180 degrees from Gold’s preceding July 6th low close. If a low is set in the first half of January ’24, the future perpetuation of that ~3-month/~90-degree cycle would time turning points in early-April and then in early-July 2024 – when a multi-month peak is most likely.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled ongoing projections for a second sharp multi-week rally in 4Q ’23, projected to stretch into early-December ’23 (Dec 4th would fulfill greatest synergy of cycles) & create a Gold spike above its early-May ’23 peak (2152/GCG = ideal target – where other upside targets converge).
Gold perfectly fulfilled that, peaking at 2152/GCG on December 4, 2023… another prime example of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles! Similar surges could be seen leading into future cycle peaks in mid-April and mid-July 2024… the next phase of Gold’s ~31-Week Cycle Progression. Inflationary cycles concur!
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar and could coincide with a pullback in interest rates. Early-December provided the latest corroboration to that outlook with Gold reinforcing its role as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’.
How Does Gold’s 4Q ’23 Surge & Peak Reinforce Analysis for July 2024?
What Type of Events Could be Unfolding to Spur Accelerated Gains in Gold?
The January 2024 INSIIDE Track will begin to elaborate on the outlook for 2024 and the potential for ‘Black Swan’ events in line with the 40-Year AND 17-Year Cycles! Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
“Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure”
“40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise”
“40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos”
“Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles”
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.