Major Stock Indices Set Stage for August ’19 Plunge; NFLX Sell Signal (July 11/12) Leads Projected Mid-July Peaks… Dynamic ‘C’-Wave Drop into Late-Aug. ’19 Likely.
07/20/19 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock Indices spiked higher into mid-month and then reversed lower, coming on the heels of related (proxy) sell signals in NFLX on July 11/12.
At the same time, the DJTA & Russell 2000 continued to vacillate in their weekly 21 High MACs – as those channels flatten and prepare to reverse lower. That increases the likelihood for a multi-week, ‘c’ wave decline in those indices even as the DJIA, SP 500 & NQ-100 enter the time when an initial multi-week decline becomes more likely…
Stock Indices rallied into mid-month, peaking on July 15 and reversing lower. That fulfilled intra-month uptrends and related daily & weekly cycles, ushering in a new correction. The Nasdaq 100 tested and held monthly resistance, while rallying into mid-month, the textbook scenario for an intra-month uptrend and its culmination.
The ESU & NQU contracts generated weekly 2 Close Reversal sell signals, reinforcing these potential peaks. In the case of the S+P, that is likely to spur a quick drop to ~2920.0/ESU – where the latest two weekly HLSlevels converge with the ascending weekly 21 High MAC…
Both the Transports and Russell 2000 continue to trace out weekly 21 MAC action that is indicative of a ‘b’ wave peak and start of ‘c’ wave decline. Proxy stocks gave early signals…
NFLX provided a convincing sell signal on July 11 (~379.5) after perpetuating a 9-week/~2-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Once again (as it has done repeatedly since mid-2018), NFLX was acting as the canary in the coal mine – signaling the onset of a precarious period between mid-July and late-Aug. It reinforced that sell signal on July 15 and then elevated it on the July 19 weekly close.
Weekly & monthly index cycles project a multi-month low in late-Aug. (possibly Sept. ’19 in some indexes) with the majority of selling expected in the weeks immediately preceding that cycle low (similar to Dec. ’18 and related to the sell-off of Aug. 2015).
In the DJIA, that would also fulfill an 11 – 12 week high (Oct. ’18) – low (Dec ’18) – low (Mar ’19) – low (Jun ’19) – (low; Aug 19 – 30) Cycle Progression.
Stock indexes reversed lower on July 16 and then corroborated that on July 19 (daily 2 Close Reversal Combo lower in DJIA & outside-day/2 Close Reversals lower in ESU & NQU).”
S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 trigger 2 – 3 week sell signals, corroborating July 11/12 NFLX sell signal (reprising its role as ‘canary in coal mine’) & July 15 cycle highs in most indexes. DJ Industrials projecting likely sell-off from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30 (daily cycles should hone this to more specific dates). 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely! What could trigger August ’19 plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.