March/April Equity Decline Complete
04/27-28/17 INSIIDE Track:
04-27-17 – The years of 2017 & 2018 play a pivotal role in long-term cycles that converge/collide at this point in history. While 2011–2016 (or 2013–2016, when discussing the 40-Year Cycle in America) were expected to set the stage – triggering all kinds of precursor events that would foreshadow what was anticipated to follow – 2017 is like the dress rehearsal before the real performance begins, a close replica of what is to follow.
There is an important principle at play here, one that has been recognized & described for millennia. It is described at different points in the Bible, dealing with prophecy and/or events of an archetype-like nature (in which an initial individual or event is a ‘type’ – or forerunner – of another similar one to follow). It is described in other religious writings as well as in various poetic/philosophical writings (see inset on page 2).
The description I like best – and that most accurately describes my approach to cycle analysis – is from Lochiel’s Warning:
“Coming events cast their shadows before.”
Simply put, significant events (and many insignificant ones) do not just pop up in a vacuum. In most cases, their momentum has been building & building for months, years or even decades preceding. While that may not precisely identify the identity or timing of the ultimate event’s occurrence, it usually gives a general idea of what & when is to come.
Obviously, there are limitations to this ‘foreknowledge’, but I would rather focus on what can be gleaned & learned before focusing on what cannot. INSIIDE Track has discussed many of these in the past…
One of the more salient ones was described for almost two entire years – from mid-1999–mid-2001 – when INSIIDE Track repeatedly detailed ‘War Cycles’ projected for Aug.–Oct. 2001.
As 1999 & early-2000 evolved, more specifics became apparent – prompting the discussion on a ‘surprise attack on America’s shores’, described in early-2000. That coincided with expectations for a unique, ~2,000-year religious cycle that would merge Christians & Jews ’reaching fruition in September 2001’ and ‘a weak point that will be attacked at a more vulnerable and opportune time. 2001 is the year to watch…’.
The markets were corroborating that outlook with stocks projected to drop sharply into Sept. 2001 if they were able to violate their Dec. 2000 low (which did occur). At the end of July 2001, another event occurred that was forecast (in August 2001 publications) to usher in a culminating 40–45 day period of testing that would lead into those 3Q 2001 War Cycles.
Did those cycles & events pinpoint what was soon to transpire on Sept. 11, 2001? Not even close! But, they certainly DID ‘cast their shadows before’… and they did provide some uncanny specifics from a timing/cyclic perspective.
Similarly, I believe the events of 2011–2016 are casting their shadows before… and it would benefit investors – and all individuals – to watch closely as those shadows become better defined and their ’cast-er’ comes more clearly into focus in the coming years. Let’s examine one facet… [reserved for subscribers only; see May 2017 INSIIDE Track for full details]…
04-28-17 – Stock Indices remain positive, but are showing some subtle signs of topping as they complete a 17-Year Cycle from the 2000 peak.
They were expected to see an initial drop in March–April 2017 & then a subsequent drop in May–June ’17… fulfilling monthly cycle lows in April & June 2017.
The first of those drops is complete and an intervening rally has taken hold. The April low perpetuated the 5 & 10-month cycles that already timed lows in Oct. ‘14, Aug. ‘15, Jan. ‘16, June ‘16 & Nov. ‘16. The expected June ‘17 low is similar but linked to other Indexes.
The Nasdaq 100 remains in the strongest position, rallying to new highs while testing the upper extreme of key wave objectives at 5414–5592/NQ…
Looking ahead, a couple important things stand out… [reserved for subscribers only; see May 2017 INSIIDE Track for full details]…
3–5 year equity traders & investors should begin considering lightening up (20–25%) on longs if/when the DJIA closes* below [reserved for subscribers only]
This is the first time in many years that longer-term investors are in a position to see a partial liquidation signal generated – adding to the significance of this 1Q 2017 cycle peak.”
Stock Indices fulfilled intermediate cycles projecting a 1–2 month drop in March/April 2017. At least one Index is arguing for another low in June 2017, before cycles turn positive for 1–2 months. The next important cycle low is expected in Sept. 2017 – the next phase of the 5-month low-low cycle that has governed equities for almost 3 years. In the meantime, upside price targets (21,616–22,030/DJIA & 2465–2531/SPX) remain in focus and are expected to be tested before a final peak.
All of the longer-term cycles should be in negative phases by the end of July 2017…These include the 40-Year Cycle (negative in 3Q/4Q 2017), 17-Year Cycle (downturn in March 2017–Oct. 2019) & 10-Year Decennial Cycle (likely sell-off in July–Nov. 2017, potentially stretching into March 2018). See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional details.