Metals Trading: Gold & Silver on Cusp of Sharp Sell-off… But Remain in Larger-Degree Uptrend. XAU is Similar.
Metals Trading: Gold & Silver on Cusp of Sharp Sell-off… But Remain in Larger-Degree Uptrend. XAU is Similar.
02/20/19 INSIIDE Track: Gold & Silver 2019 – Cycle Crescendo?:
A Broader Context
While Gold & Silver possess a heightened potential for a 1 – 2 month (or longer) peak in this time period, that must also be kept in the broader context of the 1 – 2 year outlook for precious metals to progressively work to higher levels in 2019 and (likely) 2020.
One facet of that outlook, which deserves revisiting, involves the Gold/Silver Index (XAU) that fulfilled multi-year cycles and multi-year objectives when it bottomed in early-Sept. 2018. That allowed it to come within ~1.5 points of its multi-year, ~59.00/XAU downside price target – close enough for a bottom.
As described in the 9/18/18 The Bridge – Metals & Miners: What’s Ahead?,
“In the case of the XAU, the rally into Aug. 2016 was perceived to be the ’A’ wave of a larger-magnitude ’A-B-C’ corrective advance (that could last into 2020).
The subsequent decline – into Dec. ’16 – had to be the ’a’ wave of a smaller-degree ’a-b-c’ decline (that would ultimately comprise the ’B’ wave pullback) since the monthly trend projected a subsequent drop to new lows (below the Dec. ’16 low).
IF this is the correct wave interpretation (multiple indicators will need to corroborate that), then the Gold/Silver Index could enter a new advance in 4Q 2018 (the onset of the ‘C’ wave rally) – one that is capable of lasting into late-2020/early-2021 and being related to the initial ’A’ wave advance of Jan. – Aug. 2016 (rally = rally?)…
A low in early-Sept. 2018 would also fulfill an over-arching ~180-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – low (Mar. ‘17) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Mar. ‘18) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Sequence AND a larger-degree ~360-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Progression.
With the higher-magnitude 30 – 34 month Cycle Progression averaging 32 months, a Sept. 2018 low would arrive 32 months from the Jan. 2016 bottom. So, there is a strong argument that the XAU could be producing an intermediate bottom in early-Sept.
The XAU is poised to turn its daily trend up, validating that potential. Considering that the XAU has fulfilled about 95% of the downside that has been expected of it, a bottom could form at any time. The action in the other metals could help filter that.
Long-term cycles could produce the next multi-year peak in late-2020/early-2021. The greatest synergy of cycles occurs in 4Q 2020. That includes a recurring ~5-year cycle that dates back to early-1996 and late-2000. It would also fulfill a ~10-year low (4Q ‘00)- high (4Q ‘10) – high (4Q ‘20) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver are fulfilling multi-month, multi-week & multi-day cycles converging on Feb. 19 – 22 as they reach extreme upside price targets. Silver’s daily trend pattern and weekly extremes are creating a textbook setup for a divergent peak, showing this is as high as Silver should rally before a plunge back below 15.000/SI. However, this should also be kept in the broader context of developing, 1 – 2 year uptrend.
When is the Next Buying Opportunity Most Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.