Middle East Cycles Collide in 2019; Would 1Q/2Q ’19 Crude Rally Concur?
Middle East Cycles Collide in 2019; Would 1Q/2Q ’19 Crude Rally Concur?
01/03/19 INSIIDE Track: 2019 in the Middle East
One topic that will be generating increasing focus in 2019 has to do with cycles in the Middle East. While this particular cycle is distinct from the Middle East Unification Cycle (2018 – 2021), it is also likely to play an integral role – in some form or fashion.
As discussed for many years, both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have momentous cycles projecting seismic shifts beginning in 2019. Among other things, that would perpetuate an uncanny 40-Year Cycle in Turkey, dating back to the founding of the Ottoman Empire in 1299 – 720 years ago.
That includes
1659 – Ottoman-Druze Conflict,
1699 – Culmination of Great Turkish War (involving Europe & Russia),
1739 – Culmination of Austro-Russian-Turkish War,
1779 – Ottoman Empire retakes Basra (Iraq) after losing it in Ottoman Persian War; Wahhabis (Saudi Arabia) conquer all of Najd during 1770’s,
1819 – Culmination of Ottoman-Wahhabi War (1811–1818; Ottomans recapture Saudi/Islam holy cities of Mecca & Medina; Wahhabis surrender in late-1818, Diriyah destroyed in June 1819. [Dec. 1818 = End of First Saudi State / Second Saudi State emerges in 1819 (officially in 1823) / Ibrahim ejects British from Saudi in 1819. 200 years later is 2019.].
Also, 1819 – Caucasian War in which Russia invaded the Caucasus – including Chechnya – and engaged in a widespread ethnic cleansing of Circassians, over a complete 40-Year Cycle. The War ramped up in 1819 and down in 1859 and resulted in the transfer of Muslim population into Ottoman Empire (muhajirism).
1859 – Culmination of Caucasian War and onset of Mt. Lebanon Civil War; Nearby, Russia was annexing Chechnya.
1899 – 1890’s – Greco-Turkish War (1897),
1939 – WWII (Sept. 1939–1945)… follows Arab Revolt in Palestine in 1936–1939. The outbreak of WWII had one of the most profound impacts on Turkey’s role in Eurasia – during which Turkey remained as neutral as possible, including a non-aggression pact with Hitler, even as they sent pilots to Great Britain for training.
And, 1979 – Escalating violence in Turkey from 1976–1980, leading to a coup that was forewarned in June 1979… and ’commissioned’ on Sept. 11, 1979 (although it did not occur until 1980). 1979 also timed the Islamic Revolution in Iran;… followed by an 8-year Middle East war. A similar uprising occurred in Saudi Arabia.
Watch 2019!
Energy market cycles have provided critical and revealing clues regarding Middle East expectations. With Crude Oil fulfilling downside potential from bearish 4Q ’18 cycles and attacking 2 – 3 year support & downside targets at 42.05 – 42.65/CL, the stage has been set for a 6 – 12 month bottom in oil prices.
How high could Crude rebound in 1Q/2Q 2019? The next phase of Crude’s 32 – 34 Week Cycle Progression – that projected a multi-month peak for late-Sept./early-Oct. ’18 – is in May 2019 and is likely to time the culmination of Crude’s early-2019 advance.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.