Middle East Cycles Impact Oil.
Middle East Cycles Impact Oil.
Sept. ’17 Ushers in Bullish Cycles…
…For Crude & Middle East Tension!
02/27/17 –
The Natural Year
There is a natural connection to this aggressive period since it coincides with the start of the Natural Year on the vernal equinox. That is when all of the Northern Hemisphere is coming back to life and out of ‘hibernation’. This is reflected in many ancient calendars, including the Persian Year – which begins on March 21, 2017 – and the Jewish Sacred Year that begins on March 28, 2017. The ancient Babylonian calendar – also based on the Natural Year – points to March 29/30, 2017 (based on at least one calculation) as New Year.
Related to these three New Years, the Arab League has convened in March on 13 of the last 16 years… with the 14th slated for March 2017. My primary reason for citing this has to do with developing expectations for Israel, Turkey, Syria & Saudi Arabia – expected to intensify in 2017/2018.
Middle East 2017–2019
As detailed last month, the 40-Year Cycle has impacted Turkey & the Ottoman Empire since its founding in 1299. That 40-Year Cycle – and a much larger 360-Year Cycle – are nearing a decisive transition point in 2019. It is often the time preceding a culmination when accelerated moves occur.
2019 is also a unique convergence of solar cycles and volcanic cycles described in previous publications (including a link to the 17-Year Cycle that has created a larger-degree 68-Year Cycle and timed 3 of the most powerful volcanoes of the last two centuries in 1815 (Tambora), 1883 (Krakatoa) and 1951 (Lamington) – all focusing attention on 2019).
In describing this cycle of instability, I have frequently documented the link between solar cycles & volcanic eruptions, including one tied to the ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle. That includes the eruption of Mt. Etna & devastating Messina earthquake of 1908.
11 years later, in 1919, Mt. Kelud (Indonesia) had a deadly eruption. In 1930, it was Mt. Merapi (Indonesia) and that sequence continued into 1985, when Columbia’s Nevado del Ruiz erupted violently. ~11 years later, it was La Soufriere in the Caribbean and then, in 2008, it was Chaiten in Chile. That ~11-Year Cycle next comes into play in 2019.
The reason for revisiting this is to provide a natural example of – and reaffirm the authenticity of – this ~11-Year Cycle of Instability. That segues back to the Middle East discussion and a similar ~11-Year Cycle that has governed an extremely volatile period in Saudi Arabia for a century (see inset on page 2).
I am most interested in the latest 5 phases, since Saudi Arabia organized the Arab League’s first meeting that helped create the PLO in 1964. Since then, this ~11-Year Cycle has really focused on Arab Unity and the push for a major Union of Arab States.
Arab/Israeli peace is intertwined with that, bringing the conversation full-circle – back to Major cycles converging for Israel & Jerusalem in 2017/2018.
2019 is one full 17-Year Cycle from the Saudi- backed Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. And 2019 is a full 70-Year Cycle from when Israel declared Jerusalem the eternal capital of Israel (Dec. 5, 1949). All eyes could soon be on the Middle East!”
Crude Oil set a major bottom in early-2016, along with a myriad of converging cycles. It was projected to subsequently move through an ~18-month bottoming process leading to a secondary low in 2Q/3Q 2017 and the onset of bullish cycles in Sept. 2017… that should last into 2019.
4Q 2017 into 1Q 2018 is when cycles in all the energy markets should be trending upward – identifying a pivotal period. Middle East cycles enter the early part of a crescendo at the same time (Sept. ’17 – Sept. ’18 = first phase, with second phase extending into 2019, when cycles in Turkey, Saudia Arabia & Europe collide.)