Middle East/European Union

01/24/15 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “A Cord of Three Strands: 40-Year, 70-Year & 100-Year Cycle Update…

The past week provided three (more) powerful & validating events to the long-term outlook.  To give an extremely brief review, Middle East tensions – along with the price of Gold, Silver & most commodities – were projected to peak in 2011 and then enter a multi-year period of contrasting action… before a renewed surge from 2015/2016 into2018/2019.

All of that was expected to be a precursor to a more significant peak in 2018–2021 – a time frame pinpointed for Middle East/Arab Unity AND European Unity (with a strong possibility for overlap between the two).

That was forecast to be preceded by a tumultuous period – with a real European/Euro crisis building into 2015 – ushering in the perceived (it’s all about perception!) need for unity… and the willingness to make national concessions in order to achieve that unity.

Entering into 2015, acceleration was expected… and was quickly witnessed.  The Euro accelerated its decline – on diverse concerns ranging from Greek & ultimately British elections to the recent terrorist attacks in France.  And then, in the period of 3–5 days, the following occurred:

— Call for unified European/Arab anti-terror alliance.  (Hmmmm.  Europe/Arab Union???  HMMMMM…)

— Death of King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia (see analysis on ‘Syria & Saudi’s Swan Song in 2016’)… at a time when Saudi Arabia has allowed itself to be placed in a precarious position.

— Resignation of pro-American Yemeni President.

Let’s connect a few more dots.  Cycles project Arab & Europe Unity (individually or together) in 2018–2021.  Published expectations have been that turmoil & upheaval – in Europe and the Middle East around mid-decade – would precede (and expedite) those unifications.

Cycles have pinpointed 2015–2016 as the prime period for multiple crises (ushering in ‘The Golden Year’ of 2016 – when Gold is expected to embark on its next sustainable advance) – in both realms, even as market cycles projected a sharp drop in oil prices for the second half of 2014.

And serious trouble (Overthrow?  Political shift??) is expected for both Syria & Saudi Arabia in 2016 (beginning in 2015).

Here’s where we do some connecting…

Saudi Arabia is allowing oil prices to plummet – re-exerting their economic might while steadily triggering resentment from nations like Russia & Iran, who are entering a period of serious economic pain due to plummeting oil prices.

Syria has been identified as ‘ground zero’ for ISIS/ISIL and all the terrorist training linked to attacks, beheadings, etc. of recent years.  Native citizens of one nation (e.g. France) head to Syria – via Turkey – to receive terrorist training for a few months… and then head back to their homelands (again, via Turkey… another nation with ominous cycles on the 3–5 year horizon) to perpetrate attacks on their own countries.

That puts Syria in the cross-hairs of a growing number of impacted nations.  But, Syria makes up the third prong of a three-pronged trio of Middle East ‘agitators’ (each with its own diverse objectives) – Russia, Iran & Syria (another similarity to 1973/1974) – all of which are being backed into a corner.

At the same time, and after recently exerting that they could deal with oil prices as low as $25/bbl due to the economic War Chest they have built up in recent years, Saudi Arabia is entering another transition in leadership… at the culmination of a precise 40-Year Cycle.

The leader who steered them through both ends of the Persian Gulf War (1990/91 through 2003–2005), repercussions from 9/11 & the Arab Spring is now gone.  And that ushers in the ‘ideal’ time for renewed attempts – from antagonists – to disrupt the ‘House of Saud’.

And all of this is occurring exactly 40 years from a tumultuous time in Saudi’s history – in 1975–1982 (and exactly 70 years from when Ibn Saud forged a powerful alliance with America in 1945) – that began with the assassination of Crown Prince Faisal.

That 40-Year Cycle – from 1975 – was reinforced when King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke in 1995, the 20-year mid-point of that 40-Year Cycle.  And, that 20-Year (Half-) Cycle was reinforced when King Fahd died in 2005, the 10-year mid-point of that 20-Year (Half-) Cycle.

With these profound 40-Year & 70-Year Cycles reaching fruition in 2015, could Saudi Arabia enter another tumultuous, 7-year period… similar to 1975–1982?

The single best – and fastest – way to bring about a recovery in oil prices, since a recovery in global economic activity & demand could take years, is to threaten supply.  And, one of the single biggest suppliers is Saudi Arabia.  And, that trio of agitators is known for repeatedly fomenting upheaval across the Middle East.

How long is it before terrorism or a second season of ‘Arab Spring’ lands on Saudi’s doorstep?

Oh… and if 2015 & 2016 even come close to fulfilling expectations – the clamoring for ‘Unity’ is likely to become deafening from 2016 on.  Kinda places the events of the past week in a slightly different/expanded perspective…