Middle East War Cycles Spur Gold/Silver Rallies into Cycle Highs; 2 – 4 Surges Underway.

10-14-23 – “Gold & Silver are rallying, initially fulfilling ongoing analysis (since May ’23) that the majority of a future rally – into cycle highs in late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 – would occur at the end of that cycle.

As explained throughout the past ~5 months, that was due to a myriad of cycles, wave expectations & price indicators (i.e. weekly 21 MARC) – as well as the 90/10 Rule of Cycles which was more likely to apply during this phase – most of which would not turn positive until late-Sept or early-Oct ’23.

As a result, Gold & Silver are further paralleling the action of 2016 (when the previous wave ‘I’ & ‘II’ of a larger-magnitude advance unfolded… similar to what is perceived to be occurring now).

In 2016, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.

In 2022/2023, Gold & Silver rallied for 7 – 8 months before selling off for the ensuing ~5 months.

In 2016, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during that ~5-month sell-off.

In 2023, Gold retraced 70 – 75% of its initial rally during this ~5-month sell-off.

They dropped to ‘normal’ retracement levels with the GLD ETF dropping right to its 4th wave of lesser degree support (168.19; early-Oct ‘23 low was 168.30/GLD) as Gold & Silver neared or spiked below related levels.  From a timing perspective, there was a good chance for a multi-month (or longer) low in early-Oct ‘23

The Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low in Silver completed a .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – while fulfilling an ~11-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression AND a ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  That was the same time of year Gold set its lowest weekly close in 2022 – a 1-year/ ~360-degree cycle from its ~Oct ’22 major bottom.

The action since then has reinforced the potential for Gold & Silver to undergo a quick, sharp 3 – 4-week rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 – when a 1 – 2 month high is more likely.

On a broader basis, Gold & Silver were projected to set multi-year lows in late-2022 and embark on a new (likely multi-year) advance.  If recent lows are confirmed, it would powerfully corroborate that multi-year outlook.

All of this is setting the stage for 2024, when the next big advance in metals is likely to follow a secondary top in the US Dollar. 

Gold & Silver spiked lower into early-Oct ’23 and have initially surged, signaling multi-week lows and increasing the likelihood for an accelerated advance in October – leading into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23 cycle highs when a 1 – 2 month peak is expected.

If a sharp enough rally is seen, a multi-week high could take hold as soon as Oct 23 – 27, ’23.

The XAU & HUI set lows in early-Oct ’23, fulfilling similar-magnitude AND duration declines (‘c = a’ on a price & time basis) – potentially completing their wave ‘II’ declines and setting the stage for a more significant advance to begin taking hold.

They (and Gold & Silver) also fulfilled a larger-magnitude monthly cycle that has been discussed throughout the past 5 – 7 years (particularly in Gold).  It is a 12.5 – 13.5-month/~54 – 59-week cycle that has created a high (Aug ‘19) – high (Aug ‘20) – low (Aug/Sept ‘21) – low (Sept ‘22) Cycle Progression that portends another low in the first half of Oct ‘23.

Both indexes turned their daily & intra-month trends up, confirming multi-week lows and projecting initial rallies into mid-Oct ’23.”


Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) are fulfilling ongoing projections (since May ’23) for a sharp multi-week rally into mid-Oct (Silver) and potentially early-Nov ’23 (Gold).  Middle East Cycles collide in Oct ’23 and were powerfully validated with recent events.  Silver, XAU & HUI portend surges into mid-Oct ’23.

The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024!  The 90/10 Rule of Cycles has been projecting a sharp 2 – 4 week advance in October ’23 – in the final weeks leading into a (potential) Oct/Nov ’23 peak.  That would reinforce ongoing analysis for 2024.

 

Will Middle East War Cycles Impact Gold & Silver in 2024?

How Did 90/10 Rule of Cycles AND 21 MACs Project Sharp Rally in October ’23?

Why are mid-Oct (Silver) & early-Nov ’23 (Gold) Cycle Highs Critical to 2024 Outlook?

 

Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts.

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.