Monthly Trends Reinforce Stock Market & Bitcoin Bottoms.
04/19/25 – “Stock indexes fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25% (or larger) declines into early-April and have since consolidated above their April 7th lows. Those lows also fulfilled a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles converging on April 3 – 7th, reinforcing the outlook…
Stock Indices appear to be tracing out a bottom with the S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 remaining resilient during Thursday’s DJIA drop and Wednesday’s tech sell-off.
Since the April 7th low and subsequent rally, the S+P 500 remains in the upper third of the rebound range while the DJIA & NQ-100 are near their respective midpoints… managing to hold half or more of recent gains. The longer the April 7th lows hold, the more significant they become.
That low came immediately after stock indexes fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for 20 – 25+% declines into early-April – the minimum downside projections related to the 17-Year Cycle. While there is still a high potential for additional losses – at some point in the next 6 – 12 months – initial multi-month lows could be forming now.
Those lows took hold in lockstep with a myriad of timing indicators projecting sell-offs into April 3 – 7th and a low at that time. That included a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the Aug 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle, reinforcing its significance.
In setting recent lows, the S&P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 plunged to decisive range-trading targets while the more bearish DJTA plummeted 30% into early-April cycle lows. The S+P Midcap also matched the magnitude of its 2020 decline (~900+ points) – the largest drop in its history.
In many indexes, the late-March highs are 4th wave of lesser degree resistance and an initial target for a rally. Weekly LHR levels and other indicators are corroborating that potential with the Russell 2000 building growing synergy of upside targets and over-hanging resistance levels at 2105 – 2130/QRM. Next week’s LHR (2125/ QRM) concurs. Ideally, that would be reached by/on April 24/25th…
Bitcoin & Ether remain in a multi-month corrective phase but Bitcoin has consolidated since its early-March cycle low. That resilience, in the face of plunging stocks and rising interest rates, could spur a stronger rally (possibly to ~93,000 – ~95,000/BT) in the coming week(s).
Bitcoin needs a daily close above 86,000/BTC to elevate this recovery to a higher magnitude…“
Bitcoin is showing additional signs of bottoming after fulfilling analysis for an attack of ~74,500/BT before a multi-month bottom would take hold (74,496/BT was April 7th low). That coincided with the fulfillment of stock market woes as powerful cycles bottomed and portended new multi-month rallies.
Stocks & cryptos are fulfilling analysis for a decisive low to be set during the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year – between March 20 – April 19, ’25 – another factor that projects focus to future Bitcoin cycle highs – in July & 4Q 2025. July ’25 is the next phase of an uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month peak at that time. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions.
Bitcoin’s weekly & monthly trends argue for a rally to new all-time highs by/in 4Q ’25. (Other cryptos – like Litecoin, Doge & Solana turned their monthly trends down, so new highs are not likely.) See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025…
The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
Will Bitcoin Reach New All-Time Highs by/in July ‘25?
How are Stock Index Monthly Trends Corroborating?
What Impact Should 17-Year Cycle Have on Both?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.