Multi-Month Gold Uptrend Diverges from Silver’s Outlook; Bitcoin Sell Signal.
01-29-25 – “The Dollar Index attacked monthly support and initially bounced but would not signal a 1 – 2 week low until a daily close above 108.40/DXH. This comes in the week after it tested and held its weekly HLS, increasing the likelihood for a multi-week low.
This follows the fulfillment of the 2 – 3 month outlook for an overall rally into – and a multi-month top during – January ’25. It peaked in mid-Jan. – completing back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) and perpetuating an ~8-week low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence that projected a multi-week high on Jan. 13 – 17th.
The monthly close – and whether it is above or below 108.30/DXH – should also have an impact.
The Euro spiked up to monthly resistance – in the week after it surged to its weekly LHR and held – and reversed lower, indicating that a 1 – 2 week top could be taking hold. A daily close below 1.0395/ECH is needed to confirm. A January 31st close below 1.0388/ECH would also show weakness.
This comes after the Euro fulfilled the outlook for an overall decline into January ’25, when a multi-month low became a much higher probability. It dropped into Jan 13th, precisely fulfilling a ~5-week low-high-high-high-high-high-(
A future low is likely during the week of Feb 17 – 21, ’25… 5 weeks later. The intervening action should clarify whether that would be a secondary (higher) low or a lower low. A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.
The Yen has produced initial signs of a low and confirmed a multi-week bottom. This could spur a quick surge to ~.6640/JYH, where multiple weekly LHRs converge with monthly resistance.
Bitcoin & Ether are expanding their divergence with Ether setting its lowest daily close since early-November… even as Bitcoin vacillates near its record high. It set its highest daily close exactly 6 months from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) and could have completed a ‘wave 5’ rally. It would take a daily close below 98,000/BT to confirm.
Bitcoin has failed to close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude peak. If a multi-week peak is signaled, a drop into Feb 5 – 10th would initially be expected.
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrective phases that began after they fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24 and entered what was/is likely to be a multi-month decline into a new 6 – 12-month bottom (in early-2025).
Gold & Silver have corrected in different wave structures – a type of divergence that has become the norm in precious metals – with Silver in a more bearish setup as Gold has traced out an extended ‘B’ wave rally from its November 14th low…
Gold stretched its rebound into the latest phase of a ~5-week low-low-low-low-(high) and a ~6-week/43-day high-high-(high) Cycle Progression but has not yet confirmed a peak is intact.
It would take a daily close below 2730/GCG (2758/GCJ) to provide the first signal that a multi-week top is taking hold. Until that occurs, the 1 – 2 month uptrend remains intact…
The Silver chart included in the January 2025 INSIIDE Track illustrated its perceived wave structure and details why the current correction should be comparable to the one that unfolded in May – Oct ‘23.
There is also a growing chance, depending on the price action of the next couple weeks, that Silver’s overall correction could equal the duration of the 2023 decline by stretching into March 2025 – correcting the overall ~12-month (Oct ’23 – Oct ’24) 5-wave advance.
That is also why, from a wave perspective, Silver should make it back down to its early-August ’24 low – the 4th wave of lesser degree support near 27.00/SIH. That is also where the March ’22 peak exists – a key level of resistance turned into support.
Silver turned its weekly trend down in December and has not neutralized it since then. That is in contrast to Gold, which could only neutralize its weekly uptrend during the drop into mid-November.
Silver’s weekly trend pattern projected a multi-week reactive bounce that peaked mid-month – and right at monthly resistance levels – before reversing back down. That also came in the week after Gold & Silver surged to their weekly LHR levels – portending an intermediate high in the subsequent week(s). The XAU & HUI remain in 2 – 4 week uptrends…”
Gold, Silver & XAU remain divergent as Gold reinforces its multi-month & multi-year uptrend while Silver rebounds in a broader correction from its Oct ’24 peak. The late-October ’24 Gold peak reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-May & early-Nov ’25 while the weekly trend pattern corroborates that Gold remains in an overall uptrend. Meanwhile, Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling the outlook for a multi-month downturn to take hold in January 2025. They could drop as low as [reserved for subscribers].
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
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