Nasdaq-100 Cycles Peak in July 2024; NVDA/NQ Divergent Peak Likely July 8 – 12th!
07/06/24 – “Stock indexes remain on two divergent paths with the stronger indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) rallying into July 2024 and fulfilling a number of cycles and cycle analogs (i.e 17-Year Cycle and intra-year action of 2007). Similar to 2007, they could see an overall correction into August 2024…
Stock indexes provided new divergent signals as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 turned their new intra-month trends up while the DJIA, DJTA & Russell 2000 remain neutral. In contrast, the S+P Midcap 400 turned its new intra-month trend down.
With all of this continuing divergence, it is critical to review the broader outlook. Leading into 2024, the stronger indexes were forecast to trade in a similar pattern as 2007 – the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle (and to a lesser degree, 2018).
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2007 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2024 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2007 and then underwent a sharper 4 – 5-week sell-off – into August 2007.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2024 and are expected to undergo a sharper 4 – 6-week sell-off – into August 2024… Before that can happen, however, the final ‘car(s)’ in the roller-coaster must reach the summit.
Reinforcing the 17-Year Cycle, the Nasdaq 100 has multiple timing indicators focused on July 2024.
In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks. In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has now surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024.
That ~20-month advance was split into two main segments – a ~[9]-month advance from October 2022 into July 2023 and a ~[9]-month advance from October 2023 into July 2024… cyclic parallels.
If the advance from Oct ‘22 into July 2024 were to match the magnitude of the 2020/21 advance, it would need to reach xx,xxx/NQ (cash index). That is overlapped by the resistance & projected high for July 2024…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions, anticipating a sell-off that could come in multiple phases.
Stock Indices are giving mixed signals with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 capable of spiking up to monthly resistance levels this week.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are moving toward decisive peaks projected for July 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected). Several timing indicators project a critical top for July 2024… and a sharp drop into August 2024!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 97.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
A secondary high is projected for July 8 – 12th and should usher in a larger sell-off in that proxy stock. That would be the ideal time for the NQ-100 to set a higher (divergent) high and enter a related sell-off into August 2024… in perfect sync with the 17-Year Cycle!
How Would Divergent Peak on July 8 – 12th Reinforce Outlook for July/August ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.