Nasdaq-100 Projects Decisive Peak in July 2024! Sharp Sell-off into August Projected.
07/05/24 – “Stock indexes provided new divergent signals as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 turned their new intra-month trends up while the DJIA, DJTA & Russell 2000 remain neutral. In contrast, the S+P Midcap 400 turned its new intra-month trend down.
With all of this continuing divergence, it is critical to review the broader outlook…
The 17-Year Cycle
In 2023 and early-2024, INSIIDE Track reiterated the uncanny impact the 17-Year Cycle has had on stocks… and explained how that would likely impact the 2024/2025 (into 2026) period.
At the time – and ever since – it has been discussed that 2024 could (should) unfold with some similarities to 2007… the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle.
There were other ‘analog years’ that were in focus, based on other uncanny cycles (see July 2024 INSIIDE Track for some review). In all cases, the expectation was for the stronger stocks and indexes to create a series of highs that could stretch into October 2024 before a final peak took hold.
(The weaker stocks and indexes were forecast to be continuing their topping and reversing process, preparing for the sharpest sell-offs after the stronger indexes had finally reached their peaks.)
As for the 17-Year Cycle…
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2007 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2024 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2007 and then underwent a sharper 4 – 5-week sell-off – into August 2007 that saw those indexes return to their 2007 year-opening ranges with the S+P 500 spiking below that support while retesting the low of its previous sell-off.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2024 and are expected to undergo a sharper 4 – 6-week sell-off – into August 2024… Before that can happen, however, the final ‘car(s)’ in the roller-coaster must reach the summit. More on that, particularly the Nasdaq-100, in a minute…
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 then mustered a final rally into October 2007 before a major top was set and the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines firmly took hold.
In 2024, there remains the potential (as long as an impending decline does not break 3 – 6 month support or turn multi-month indicators down) for the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 to muster a final rally into October 2024 before a major top is set and the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines firmly takes hold…
Nasdaq-100 Timing Objectives
There are many other cycles and timing indicators corroborating these expectations. Synergy is always the key and a cycle as large as a 17-Year Cycle should not be relied on (alone) for specific turning points.
A couple of them are pretty straightforward – providing additional examples of wave symmetry on a timing basis…
- In 2020/2021, prior to the 2021 peak, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks.
- In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has now surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks from its October 2022 bottom as it enters the month of July 2024 – the most likely time for a 1 – 3-month peak.
That ~20-month advance – from October 2022 into July 2024 has been divided into two main segments:
- …advance from October 2022 into July 2023
- …advance from October 2023 into July 2024… cyclic parallels.
Nasdaq-100 Price Objectives
There is another intriguing parallel between the two ~20-month advances in the Nasdaq-100…
If the advance from October 2022 into July 2024 were to match the magnitude of the advance from March 2020 into November 2021 (another example of wave symmetry), it would need to reach xx,xxx/NQ (cash index).
That is overlapped by the resistance & projected high for July 2024… While the Nasdaq-100 could certainly exceed those levels, it would provide the ideal time and price for a peak if/when it tests them. Is the final ‘car’ reaching the summit?
The Leading (Proxy) Stock
There is still the all-popular leading stock that has supported the 2024 advance – NVDA. It fulfilled upside targets – in time and price – during the week of June 17 – 21, 2024 and underwent an initial sell-off into June 24th. Based on a combination of shorter-term (daily) cycles and timing indicators, it should set a secondary high on July 5th or 8th and then enter another sell-off.
July 8 – 12th will also be when a key time/price reversal indicator would be best positioned for a negative signal… most notably the daily 21 MAC (as the inversely-correlated 21 MARC rallies past current price levels…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions… anticipating a sell-off.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are moving toward decisive peaks projected for July & October 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected). Several timing indicators project a critical top for July 2024!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 100.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
A secondary high is projected for July 8 – 12th and should usher in a larger sell-off into that proxy stock. That would be the ideal time for the NQ-100 to set a higher (divergent) high and enter a related sell-off into August 2024. Watch the 17-Year Cycle!
How Would Divergent Peak on July 8 – 12th Reinforce Outlook for July/August ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.