Nasdaq-100 Projects Surge into June ‘23; Russell 2K Cycle High Concurs.
05/06/23 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indexes remain in a multi-month trading range, exhibiting widening divergence at intermediate highs and lows. The NQ-100 remains the strongest and could still see a rally as high as 13,800 (possibly 14,000) by early-June ’23. That maintains the potential to coincide with the S+P 500 attacking 4300/ES…
Stock Indices spiked to new highs to begin the week with some indexes setting new multi-month highs (DJIA, S+P 500) and others setting new intra-year highs (NQ-100). Other indices could not even exceed the prior week’s highs (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P 400 Midcap)… and quickly reversed lower.
That allowed the NQ-100 to fulfill the outlook for a rally into April 28 – May 2, when daily cycles projected an initial peak… That is likely to be only an intervening peak on the way to a higher high during the next phase of a ~9-week/~2-month low/ high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400.
That would also fulfill an 18-week low-high-(high; June 2 – 9, ’23 Cycle Progression AND a ~12-week low-low-low-(high?) Cycle Progression – arriving on June 2 – 12, ‘23. A high at that time would also arrive 1 year (360 degrees) from the June ’22 lows and fulfill a ~3-month high-low-low-low-low-(high; June ‘23) Cycle Progression in the Russell 2000.
That was again highlighted, and illustrated, in the May ’23 INSIIDE Track – focusing on that index’s March 20/24 low (start of the Natural Year) and subsequent rally into April 17 – 19 (culmination of first ‘month’ of Natural Year 2023/24).
That was also the exact time that stocks bottomed in 2020 (before surging into April 17 and ultimately into June 8, ’20) – completing sharp sell-offs from mid-February in both years (2020 & 2023). Since its March 24 low, when it briefly turned its intra-year trend down, the Russell 2000 has managed to close each subsequent week in neutral territory.
Among other things, that suggests the next rally (potentially into early-June ’23) is likely to hold at or below the early-year highs in THAT index. The Russell 2000 was also one of the few indexes that did not briefly turn its new intra-month trend down this past week (the DJTA acted similarly).
This also suggests a new multi-week rally is imminent.”
Stock indexes are generating additional bullish signals, expected to spur another rally into June ’23. when diverse cycles converge (NQ-100 cycles on June 2 – 12, DJIA/overall stock cycles in mid-June ‘23/Russell 2K cycles in mid-to-late-June ’23). That would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after setting what should be a 3 – 6 month low on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (also a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and is following a textbook scenario in which a low around March 20/21 (Vernal Equinox) sets the tone, trend, and trading range for the ensuing Natural Year… and spurs an initial rally into April 19/20. That became the opening range – and breakout resistance – for the months that follow. Leading indexes are now triggering bullish breakout signals, reinforcing their intra-year uptrends (that project higher levels into June/July ’23).
The DJIA turned its weekly trend up, signaling a likely (initial) peak followed by a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off. That should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.