NFLX & Russell 2000 Leading Stock Reversal Lower; Cycles Portend Mid-July ’19 Peak Followed by Aug. ’19 Sell-off. Could Fed or Trade Wars Trigger New Slide?
07/13/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices remain positive after turning their weekly trends up in late-June, with key stocks and indexes rallying to new highs as many others remain below their late-April/early-May highs (the latest phase of a consistent ~8-month cycle).
This comes after the primary indexes corrected into early-June, retesting and holding the high of their 2019 year-opening range – projecting rallies back to their highs leading into mid-year (now). At that time, the weekly trend pattern was the primary determining factor as to how and when that rally and that peak were more likely to unfold.
The primary indexes turned their weekly trends up on June 21, adjusting the outlook for late-June through mid-July while forecasting a 1 – 3 week reactive pullback followed by a rally to new intra-year highs. Equites entered a ~2-week period of congestion before breaking back out to the upside and resuming their uptrends this past week. Their daily & intra-month trends helped spur this rally into mid-month, when a new 2 – 4 week peak is again more likely. Key cycles corroborate that…
The Russell 2000 has a 9 – 10 week low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression that has anticipated a secondary high on July 12 – 19. That remains the case and the weekly 21 MAC is still in the optimum position for a ‘b’ wave peak and start of ‘c’ wave decline. A high on July 15 would also make the latest two advances of exactly equal duration (successive 42-day/6-week advances).
Looking out over the next 1 – 2 months, the DJIA has a consistent 11 – 12 week high (Oct. ’18) – low (Dec. ’18) – low (Mar. ’19) – low (Jun. ’19) Cycle Progression that next comes into play on Aug. 19 – 30, which is more likely to time an intermediate low (and then be followed by an 11 – 12 week advance).
That reinforces analysis for a 3 – 6 month low to occur in Aug./Sept. ’19, ideally in the second half of August (also a 4-year cycle from the late-Aug. ’15 low). Proxy stocks like NFLX (which has given uncanny signals since mid-’18) & GOOGL concur, both of which remain below their early-May highs and are poised to enter new declines.”
NFLX again acting as ‘canary in coal mine’, triggering important sell signal on July 11/12 as the Russell 2K and most stocks & indexes project a mid-July ‘19 peak. DJ Industrials signaling likely sell-off from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30 (daily cycles should hone this). 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely! What could trigger August ’19 plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.