NFLX Triggers Sell Signal as Stock Indexes Project July 15/16 Top; Mid-July Peak Expected to Trigger 4 – 6 Week Sell-off into Late-Aug.
07/13/19 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock Indices remain positive with key indexes rallying to new highs. The DJTA fulfilled upside expectations in early-July and came very close to reaching downside targets this past week, before rallying back to its weekly 21 High MAC. That vacillating action is still indicative of a secondary top formation (also evident in Russell 2K)…
Stock Indices remain in weekly uptrends and continue to add to gains. When they bottomed in early-June and projected a multi-week rally, the weekly trend pattern was the ultimate filter. The more bearish scenario, which was also the expected scenario, was for the weekly trend to remain negative and turn back down, ideally with daily/ weekly cycles on June 21/24. That was wrong.
They rallied into June 21/24 and set a 1 – 3 week high (depending on which index is being viewed) but could not turn their daily trend down to confirm anything more than a 1 – 2 week peak. That is why the action of June 26 – 28 (and the 6/29 Weekly Re-Lay) projected a rally to new highs.
That daily trend action (and the intra-month trend action) also altered expectations for mid-July – when an intermediate high is more likely (instead of a pullback low before a rally to new highs). Cycles in at least one key index corroborate that…
The Russell 2000 has a 9 – 10 week low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression that has anticipated a secondary high on July 12 – 19. That remains the case and the weekly 21 MAC is still in the optimum position for a ‘b’ wave peak and start of ‘c’ wave decline. A high on July 15 would also make the latest two advances of exactly equal duration (successive 42-day/6-week advances).
Looking out over the next 1 – 2 months, the DJIA has a consistent 11 – 12 week high (Oct. ’18) – low (Dec. ’18) – low (Mar. ’19) – low (Jun. ’19) Cycle Progression that next comes into play on Aug. 19 – 30, which is more likely to time an intermediate low (and then be followed by an 11 – 12 week advance).
That reinforces analysis for a 3 – 6 month low to occur in Aug./Sept. ’19, ideally in the second half of August (also a 4-year cycle from the late-Aug. ’15 low). Proxy stocks like NFLX (which has given uncanny signals since mid-’18) & GOOGL concur.
Stock indexes remain in daily uptrends and turned their intra-month trends up, projecting gains into July 15/16 and to monthly resistance. That is nearing fruition…”
NFLX again acting as ‘canary in coal mine’, triggering important sell signal on July 11/12 as most stocks & indexes project mid-July peak. DJ Industrials signaling likely sell-off from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30 (daily cycles should hone this). 40-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle project increasing trouble in/around Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off becoming increasingly more likely! What does NFLX sell signal bode?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.